Football · Northern Ireland Cup Women · 17/07, 20:30
Prediction: Derry City (W) vs Bangor FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.63Total
Derry City (W)2.42
Bangor FC (W)1.22
1X2
Derry City (W)
Draw
Bangor FC (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Derry City (W)
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Bangor FC (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derry City (W) 1474 · Bangor FC (W) 1570
| Derry City (W) | Draw | Bangor FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Market | 63% | 20% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bangor FC (W) (rating 1474 vs 1570).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derry City (W) | Bangor FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.6 | 3.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/0/50% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4 | 2.6 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 1 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derry City (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/06 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 29/05 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 22/04 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland League Cup Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/04 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland League Cup Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
Bangor FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Ballymena Utd (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 01/07 | Ballymoney United (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 17/06 | Strabane Athletic (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-0 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 03/06 | Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | Mid Ulster (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
3-0 | 7-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | St. James Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 29/04 | Sion Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 22/04 | Greenisland (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/04 | Craigavon City (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 08/04 | Ballymena Utd (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derry City (W) vs Bangor FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Derry City (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Derry City (W) 63%, draw 20%, Bangor FC (W) 17%.
How many goals are expected in Derry City (W) vs Bangor FC (W)?
The model expects 3.63 goals (Derry City (W) 2.42 · Bangor FC (W) 1.22), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Derry City (W) vs Bangor FC (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.