Football · Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz · 14/11, 13:30

Prediction: Somaspor vs Arnavutkoy Belediyesi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Somaspor1.76

Arnavutkoy Belediyesi0.84

1X2

59% 24% 17%

Somaspor Draw Arnavutkoy Belediyesi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Somaspor 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLLLDW

Arnavutkoy Belediyesi 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Somaspor 4–1–1 Arnavutkoy Belediyesi (6 last)

Arnavutkoy Belediyesi0-0Somaspor
Somaspor1-3Arnavutkoy Belediyesi
Somaspor3-2Arnavutkoy Belediyesi
Arnavutkoy Belediyesi0-1Somaspor
Arnavutkoy Belediyesi0-1Somaspor
Somaspor1-0Arnavutkoy Belediyesi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Somaspor 1481 · Arnavutkoy Belediyesi 1385

	Somaspor	Draw	Arnavutkoy Belediyesi
Our model	58%	25%	16%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Somaspor (rating 1481 vs 1385).
H2H favours Somaspor: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Somaspor	Arnavutkoy Belediyesi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	0.5 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.50▲	Pinn 1.54
X	4.10 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
2	5.50 → 5.00▼	Pinn 5.31 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:03 +1’	1.45	4.10	5.50
16:01 +7’	1.50▲	4.00▼	5.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +12’	1.54	3.81	5.31

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Somaspor 4–1–1 Arnavutkoy Belediyesi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Türkiye 2 Lig Kirmizi	Arnavutkoy Belediyesi	0-0 HT 0-0	Somaspor
26/10/25 Türkiye 2 Lig Kirmizi	Somaspor	1-3 HT 1-1	Arnavutkoy Belediyesi
13/04/25 Türkiye 2 Lig Kirmizi	Somaspor	3-2 HT 3-0	Arnavutkoy Belediyesi
30/11/24 Türkiye 2 Lig Kirmizi	Arnavutkoy Belediyesi	0-1 HT 0-0	Somaspor
20/01/24 Türkiye 2 Lig Kirmizi	Arnavutkoy Belediyesi	0-1 HT 0-1	Somaspor
03/09/23 Türkiye 2 Lig Kirmizi	Somaspor	1-0 HT 1-0	Arnavutkoy Belediyesi

Standings · Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz · 2. Lig 26/27, Beyaz Grup

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Elazigspor	10	8	1	1	28	7	25
2	Guzide Gebzespor	10	7	3	0	21	11	24
3	Mus Spor FC	10	7	2	1	29	13	23
4	Aliaga Futbol AS	10	7	1	2	19	14	22
5	Corluspor 1947	10	6	2	2	19	10	20
6	Inegol Kafkasspor	10	6	1	3	20	15	19
7	Sanliurfaspor	10	5	3	2	20	12	18
8	Erbaaspor	10	5	1	4	20	15	16
9	Menemen	10	4	2	4	12	11	14
10	Sebat Genclikspor	10	3	3	4	20	15	12
11	Ankaraspor	10	4	0	6	14	18	12
12	Isparta 32 Spor	10	3	2	5	16	21	11
13	Somaspor	10	3	2	5	11	18	11
14	68 Yeni Aksarayspor	10	2	3	5	16	16	9
15	Kastamonuspor	10	2	1	7	7	32	4
16	Arnavutkoy Belediyesi	10	0	1	9	5	22	-2
17	Hatayspor	10	1	1	8	4	18	-5
18	Adana Demirspor	10	2	1	7	9	22	-50

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Somaspor	Arnavutkoy Belediyesi
Hatayspor	1-0 W	0-2 L
Corluspor 1947	0-2 L	0-2 L
Guzide Gebzespor	1-4 L	0-1 L
Aliaga Futbol AS	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Somaspor (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Somaspor

DWLWLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Hatayspor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
04/11	Sebat Genclikspor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
01/11	Corluspor 1947 Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
24/10	Guzide Gebzespor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	1-1	1-4	5	7	L
18/10	Aliaga Futbol AS Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	1-2	1-2	6	5	L
11/10	Adana Demirspor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	Ankaraspor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
20/09	Mus Spor FC Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Inegol Kafkasspor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
06/09	68 Yeni Aksarayspor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	2-3	3-3	–	–	D

Arnavutkoy Belediyesi

LLLLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Menemen Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
01/11	Erbaaspor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
24/10	Sanliurfaspor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
17/10	Elazigspor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
10/10	Isparta 32 Spor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	2-1	2-3	3	5	L
04/10	Kastamonuspor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/09	Hatayspor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
19/09	Corluspor 1947 Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
12/09	Guzide Gebzespor Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	Aliaga Futbol AS Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	1-3	1-4	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Somaspor vs Arnavutkoy Belediyesi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Somaspor win (59%). Probabilities: Somaspor 59%, draw 24%, Arnavutkoy Belediyesi 17%.

How many goals are expected in Somaspor vs Arnavutkoy Belediyesi?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Somaspor 1.76 · Arnavutkoy Belediyesi 0.84), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Somaspor vs Arnavutkoy Belediyesi?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.