Football · Hungary NB III · 15/11, 13:00

Prediction: Budafoki MTE vs MTK Budapest II

Team pages: Budafoki MTE · MTK Budapest II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Budafoki MTE2.13

MTK Budapest II1.84

1X2

44% 23% 33%

Budafoki MTE Draw MTK Budapest II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Budafoki MTE 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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MTK Budapest II 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Budafoki MTE 0–1 MTK Budapest II (1 last)

MTK Budapest II4-2Budafoki MTE

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Budafoki MTE 1464 · MTK Budapest II 1480

	Budafoki MTE	Draw	MTK Budapest II
Our model	45%	22%	33%
Market	44%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Budafoki MTE	MTK Budapest II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	1.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.80

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:47 +25’	2.05	3.80	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Budafoki MTE 0–0–1 MTK Budapest II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Hungary NB III	MTK Budapest II	4-2 HT 3-1	Budafoki MTE

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	14	12	1	1	40	6	37
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	14	10	1	3	38	17	31
3	Ivancsa	14	9	0	5	33	24	27
4	Ferencvarosi TC II	14	7	4	3	34	20	25
5	Erdi VSE	15	7	4	4	32	29	25
6	Majosi SE	13	7	3	3	30	27	24
7	Dunaharaszti MTK	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
8	PEAC FC	14	5	4	5	20	22	19
9	MTK Budapest II	13	6	0	7	32	28	18
10	Budafoki MTE	14	5	3	6	24	23	18
11	BFC Siofok	14	5	2	7	22	20	17
12	Paksi SE II	14	4	4	6	30	24	16
13	Budaorsi SC	15	3	4	8	23	44	13
14	Sarbogard SE	14	1	2	11	11	41	5
15	Szekszardi	14	0	0	14	6	53	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Budafoki MTE	MTK Budapest II
Kaposvari Rakoczi	0-1 L	3-4 L
Ivancsa	1-2 L	2-5 L
Erdi VSE	2-2 D	3-1 W
Ferencvarosi TC II	1-3 L	0-2 L
Pecsi MFC	1-2 L	0-3 L
Dunaharaszti MTK	2-4 L	4-2 W
Paksi SE II	2-1 W	4-2 W
Budaorsi SC	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Budafoki MTE

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
31/10	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
24/10	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	2-2	8	3	D
17/10	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
10/10	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	3-0	3-3	8	4	D
03/10	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	0	1	L
26/09	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-0	2-4	3	2	L
19/09	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
29/08	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
26/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	4-0	15	3	W

MTK Budapest II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
31/10	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
24/10	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	2-2	3-4	4	7	L
17/10	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	2-4	2-5	5	1	L
11/10	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
03/10	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
19/09	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-0	0-3	1	4	L
06/09	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-2	4-2	4	4	W
29/08	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	2-1	4-2	3	3	W
15/08	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Budafoki MTE vs MTK Budapest II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Budafoki MTE win (44%). Probabilities: Budafoki MTE 44%, draw 23%, MTK Budapest II 33%.

How many goals are expected in Budafoki MTE vs MTK Budapest II?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Budafoki MTE 2.13 · MTK Budapest II 1.84), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Budafoki MTE vs MTK Budapest II?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.