Football · Hungary NB III · 15/11, 13:00

Prediction: BFC Siofok vs Kaposvari Rakoczi

Team pages: BFC Siofok · Kaposvari Rakoczi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

BFC Siofok1.35

Kaposvari Rakoczi1.89

1X2

26% 25% 49%

BFC Siofok Draw Kaposvari Rakoczi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

BFC Siofok 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLWLL

Kaposvari Rakoczi 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWWWWW

Head-to-head

BFC Siofok 0–2–4 Kaposvari Rakoczi (6 last)

Kaposvari Rakoczi2-1BFC Siofok
BFC Siofok1-3Kaposvari Rakoczi
Kaposvari Rakoczi2-0BFC Siofok
BFC Siofok0-0Kaposvari Rakoczi
Kaposvari Rakoczi1-1BFC Siofok
BFC Siofok1-2Kaposvari Rakoczi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFC Siofok 1468 · Kaposvari Rakoczi 1559

	BFC Siofok	Draw	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Our model	26%	24%	49%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaposvari Rakoczi (rating 1468 vs 1559).
H2H favours Kaposvari Rakoczi: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFC Siofok	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 2.8	2.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.6	5.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:02 +2’	3.50	3.50	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BFC Siofok 0–2–4 Kaposvari Rakoczi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Hungary NB III	Kaposvari Rakoczi	2-1 HT 2-0	BFC Siofok
13/03/26 Hungary NB III	BFC Siofok	1-3 HT 1-2	Kaposvari Rakoczi
27/08/25 Hungary NB III	Kaposvari Rakoczi	2-0 HT 2-0	BFC Siofok
25/05/25 Hungary NB III	BFC Siofok	0-0 HT 0-0	Kaposvari Rakoczi
14/03/21 Hungary NB II	Kaposvari Rakoczi	1-1 HT 0-0	BFC Siofok
27/09/20 Hungary NB II	BFC Siofok	1-2 HT 1-0	Kaposvari Rakoczi

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	14	12	1	1	40	6	37
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	14	10	1	3	38	17	31
3	Ivancsa	14	9	0	5	33	24	27
4	Ferencvarosi TC II	14	7	4	3	34	20	25
5	Erdi VSE	15	7	4	4	32	29	25
6	Majosi SE	13	7	3	3	30	27	24
7	Dunaharaszti MTK	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
8	PEAC FC	14	5	4	5	20	22	19
9	MTK Budapest II	13	6	0	7	32	28	18
10	Budafoki MTE	14	5	3	6	24	23	18
11	BFC Siofok	14	5	2	7	22	20	17
12	Paksi SE II	14	4	4	6	30	24	16
13	Budaorsi SC	15	3	4	8	23	44	13
14	Sarbogard SE	14	1	2	11	11	41	5
15	Szekszardi	14	0	0	14	6	53	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFC Siofok	Kaposvari Rakoczi
Ivancsa	0-2 L	1-0 W
Erdi VSE	1-2 L	1-3 L
Ferencvarosi TC II	3-1 W	2-2 D
Majosi SE	2-3 L	1-4 L
Pecsi MFC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Dunaharaszti MTK	1-2 L	4-2 W
Sarbogard SE	1-1 D	7-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BFC Siofok

DWWWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	0-2	1	7	L
31/10	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	5	10	L
24/10	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
17/10	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
11/10	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
03/10	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
27/09	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
05/09	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	2-1	4-1	2	3	W
29/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	6	7	W
26/08	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Kaposvari Rakoczi

WLLDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	4	9	W
31/10	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/10	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	2-2	4-3	9	7	W
17/10	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	4-0	7-0	4	5	W
10/10	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
26/09	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
19/09	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-2	1-4	4	7	L
05/09	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	2-2	4-2	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFC Siofok vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kaposvari Rakoczi win (49%). Probabilities: BFC Siofok 26%, draw 25%, Kaposvari Rakoczi 49%.

How many goals are expected in BFC Siofok vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

The model expects 3.24 goals (BFC Siofok 1.35 · Kaposvari Rakoczi 1.89), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in BFC Siofok vs Kaposvari Rakoczi?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.