Football · Hungary NB III · 13/11, 13:00

Prediction: Budaorsi SC vs Erdi VSE

Team pages: Budaorsi SC · Erdi VSE

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.08Total

Budaorsi SC1.74

Erdi VSE2.33

1X2

28% 22% 50%

Budaorsi SC Draw Erdi VSE

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Budaorsi SC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDLLLD

Erdi VSE 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Budaorsi SC 3–2–1 Erdi VSE (6 last)

Erdi VSE3-3Budaorsi SC
Erdi VSE1-0Budaorsi SC
Budaorsi SC1-0Erdi VSE
Erdi VSE2-2Budaorsi SC
Budaorsi SC5-3Erdi VSE
Budaorsi SC3-0Erdi VSE

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Budaorsi SC 1433 · Erdi VSE 1527

	Budaorsi SC	Draw	Erdi VSE
Our model	28%	21%	51%
Market	28%	22%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 4.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erdi VSE (rating 1433 vs 1527).
H2H favours Budaorsi SC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Budaorsi SC	Erdi VSE
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 3.1	2.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.6	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.25

X4.00

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:22 +39’	3.25	4.00	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Budaorsi SC 3–2–1 Erdi VSE

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Hungary NB III	Erdi VSE	3-3 HT 1-1	Budaorsi SC
13/04/25 Hungary NB III	Erdi VSE	1-0 HT 0-0	Budaorsi SC
29/09/24 Hungary NB III	Budaorsi SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Erdi VSE
06/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Erdi VSE	2-2 HT 0-0	Budaorsi SC
03/02/24 Club Friendly List	Budaorsi SC	5-3 HT 3-0	Erdi VSE
12/03/23 Hungary NB III	Budaorsi SC	3-0 HT 0-0	Erdi VSE

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	14	12	1	1	40	6	37
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	14	10	1	3	38	17	31
3	Ivancsa	14	9	0	5	33	24	27
4	Ferencvarosi TC II	14	7	4	3	34	20	25
5	Majosi SE	13	7	3	3	30	27	24
6	Dunaharaszti MTK	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
7	Erdi VSE	14	6	4	4	30	28	22
8	PEAC FC	14	5	4	5	20	22	19
9	MTK Budapest II	13	6	0	7	32	28	18
10	Budafoki MTE	14	5	3	6	24	23	18
11	BFC Siofok	14	5	2	7	22	20	17
12	Paksi SE II	14	4	4	6	30	24	16
13	Budaorsi SC	14	3	4	7	22	42	13
14	Sarbogard SE	14	1	2	11	11	41	5
15	Szekszardi	14	0	0	14	6	53	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Budaorsi SC	Erdi VSE
Ferencvarosi TC II	2-2 D	3-3 D
Majosi SE	3-4 L	2-3 L
Sarbogard SE	1-1 D	4-3 W
Szekszardi	5-1 W	1-0 W
BFC Siofok	1-4 L	2-1 W
Budafoki MTE	1-3 L	2-2 D
PEAC FC	1-6 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Erdi VSE (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Budaorsi SC

LLLWDDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
31/10	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	2-1	3-4	–	–	L
24/10	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-4	0-6	2	7	L
17/10	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	0-1	0-3	4	7	L
10/10	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/09	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-1	5-1	8	7	W
05/09	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	1-2	1-4	9	3	L
29/08	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	1-2	1-3	1	4	L
26/08	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-2	1-6	3	4	L

Erdi VSE

LDWLWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/10	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	6	10	W
24/10	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
17/10	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	6	8	W
11/10	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	5	6	L
03/10	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
26/09	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	1-4	–	–	L
19/09	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	3-1	4-3	7	4	W
05/09	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-2	3-3	8	3	D
30/08	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Budaorsi SC vs Erdi VSE?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Erdi VSE win (50%). Probabilities: Budaorsi SC 28%, draw 22%, Erdi VSE 50%.

How many goals are expected in Budaorsi SC vs Erdi VSE?

The model expects 4.08 goals (Budaorsi SC 1.74 · Erdi VSE 2.33), with a 58% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Budaorsi SC vs Erdi VSE?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.