Football · Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 · 26/07, 20:00

Prediction: Valeriodoce EC vs Villa Nova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Valeriodoce EC1.22

Villa Nova0.75

1X2

47% 32% 22%

Valeriodoce EC Draw Villa Nova

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Valeriodoce EC 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWWDWD

Villa Nova 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLDLD

Head-to-head

Valeriodoce EC 1–2–0 Villa Nova (3 last)

Villa Nova1-1Valeriodoce EC
Valeriodoce EC1-0Villa Nova
Villa Nova2-2Valeriodoce EC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valeriodoce EC 1560 · Villa Nova 1501

	Valeriodoce EC	Draw	Villa Nova
Our model	46%	32%	21%
Market	47%	31%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valeriodoce EC (rating 1560 vs 1501).
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valeriodoce EC	Villa Nova
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.3	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/75/0%	29/57/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.9	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	5.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X2.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:31 +2’	1.90	2.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valeriodoce EC 1–2–0 Villa Nova

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	Villa Nova	1-1 HT 0-0	Valeriodoce EC
12/07/26 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	Valeriodoce EC	1-0 HT 0-0	Villa Nova
30/05/26 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	Villa Nova	2-2	Valeriodoce EC

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 · Mineiro, Modulo II 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valeriodoce EC	10	5	5	0	9	4	20
2	Democrata SL	10	5	2	3	19	10	17
3	SC Aymores	10	4	4	2	17	9	16
4	Villa Nova	10	4	2	4	17	12	14
5	Coimbra	10	2	4	4	12	12	10
6	Ipatinga	10	1	1	8	6	33	-2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valeriodoce EC	Villa Nova
Coimbra	0-0 D	1-2 L
Democrata SL	1-0 W	0-1 L
SC Aymores	1-0 W	1-1 D
Ipatinga	1-1 D	6-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Valeriodoce EC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valeriodoce EC

DWDWDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Villa Nova Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
12/07	Villa Nova Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
05/07	Coimbra Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
02/07	Democrata SL Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
28/06	SC Aymores Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
24/06	Ipatinga Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/06	Ipatinga Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/06	SC Aymores Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
13/06	Democrata SL Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
07/06	Coimbra Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	–	0-0	–	–	D

Villa Nova

LWWWLWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Valeriodoce EC Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
12/07	Valeriodoce EC Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
04/07	SC Aymores Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-1	1-1	5	9	D
01/07	Coimbra Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
27/06	Ipatinga Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	–	6-0	–	–	W
24/06	Democrata SL Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
21/06	Democrata SL Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-1	2-1	10	4	W
17/06	Ipatinga Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/06	Coimbra Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	2-0	3-2	2	5	W
06/06	SC Aymores Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valeriodoce EC vs Villa Nova?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valeriodoce EC win (47%). Probabilities: Valeriodoce EC 47%, draw 32%, Villa Nova 22%.

How many goals are expected in Valeriodoce EC vs Villa Nova?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Valeriodoce EC 1.22 · Villa Nova 0.75), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Valeriodoce EC vs Villa Nova?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.