Football · Poland Ekstraliga Women · 14/11, 12:00

Prediction: Lech Poznan UAM (W) vs Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

Team pages: Lech Poznan UAM (W) · Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.95Total

Lech Poznan UAM (W)0.99

Czarni Sosnowiec (W)2.97

1X2

9% 14% 77%

Lech Poznan UAM (W) Draw Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

0-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Lech Poznan UAM (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDLLWW

Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDLLWW

Head-to-head

Lech Poznan UAM (W) 0–2 Czarni Sosnowiec (W) (2 last)

Lech Poznan UAM (W)0-4Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
Czarni Sosnowiec (W)7-1Lech Poznan UAM (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lech Poznan UAM (W) 1481 · Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 1529

	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	Draw	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
Our model	9%	14%	77%
Market	9%	14%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Czarni Sosnowiec (W) (rating 1481 vs 1529).
H2H favours Czarni Sosnowiec (W): 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	2.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/22/44%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	2.4 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

110.00

X6.50

21.18

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)2.00

2 (-2)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:54 +10’	10.00	6.50	1.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lech Poznan UAM (W) 0–0–2 Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Poland Ekstraliga Women	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	0-4 HT 0-1	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
11/11/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	7-1 HT 2-1	Lech Poznan UAM (W)

Standings · Poland Ekstraliga Women

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GKS Katowice (W)	9	8	1	0	31	7	25
2	Pogon Szczecin (W)	10	7	0	3	25	12	21
3	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	10	6	2	2	25	13	20
4	Gornik Leczna (W)	10	6	2	2	24	11	20
5	APLG Gdansk (W)	10	4	3	3	14	15	15
6	Legia Warsaw (W)	10	4	2	4	19	20	14
7	AZS UJ Krakow (W)	10	3	3	4	12	17	12
8	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	9	3	1	5	14	20	10
9	Sleza Wroclaw (W)	10	2	2	6	16	25	8
10	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	9	1	4	4	10	21	7
11	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	9	1	3	5	5	18	6
12	Slask Wroclaw (W)	10	0	3	7	9	25	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
UKS SMS Lodz (W)	3-0 W	5-0 W
AZS UJ Krakow (W)	2-0 W	2-0 W
Pogon Szczecin (W)	1-3 L	0-3 L
APLG Gdansk (W)	1-3 L	1-1 D
Slask Wroclaw (W)	2-2 D	2-0 W
Gornik Leczna (W)	0-3 L	3-1 W
Legia Warsaw (W)	3-4 L	3-0 W
GKS Katowice (W)	0-5 L	3-3 D
Sleza Wroclaw (W)	2-0 W	2-4 L
Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	2-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	6 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Czarni Sosnowiec (W) (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lech Poznan UAM (W)

WWLLLDLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	3-0	0	3	W
21/10	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	2-0	11	3	W
17/10	Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
03/10	APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
27/09	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-1	2-2	4	6	D
22/08	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
15/08	Legia Warsaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-3	3-4	5	2	L
08/08	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	0-5	6	1	L
01/08	Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
30/05	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	1	4	W

Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

WDWWWDLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	4-1	12	3	W
03/11	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	3-1	8	3	W
31/10	Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	0-3	5	8	L
21/10	Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	2-4	3	6	L
17/10	APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
04/10	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-0	10	4	W
27/09	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
22/08	Legia Warsaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	–	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-3	3-3	7	1	D
31/07	UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-0	5-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan UAM (W) vs Czarni Sosnowiec (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Czarni Sosnowiec (W) win (77%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan UAM (W) 9%, draw 14%, Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 77%.

How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan UAM (W) vs Czarni Sosnowiec (W)?

The model expects 3.95 goals (Lech Poznan UAM (W) 0.99 · Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 2.97), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan UAM (W) vs Czarni Sosnowiec (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.