Football · Australia New South Wales Cup Women · 15/07, 11:00
Prediction: University NSW (W) vs Manly Utd (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
University NSW (W)1.81
Manly Utd (W)0.71
1X2
University NSW (W)
Draw
Manly Utd (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
University NSW (W)
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Manly Utd (W)
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
University NSW (W)
3–1–1
Manly Utd (W)
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · University NSW (W) 1591 · Manly Utd (W) 1501
| University NSW (W) | Draw | Manly Utd (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| Market | 64% | 22% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University NSW (W) (rating 1591 vs 1501).
- H2H favours University NSW (W): 3-1-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| University NSW (W) | Manly Utd (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.1 | 1.7 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 1.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · University NSW (W) 3–1–1 Manly Utd (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Manly Utd (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | University NSW (W) |
| 24/08/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | University NSW (W) | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Manly Utd (W) |
| 25/05/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Manly Utd (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | University NSW (W) |
| 14/07/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Manly Utd (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | University NSW (W) |
| 14/04/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | University NSW (W) | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Manly Utd (W) |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | University NSW (W) | Manly Utd (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Olympic FC (W) | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Northern Tigers FC (W) | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Bulls FC Academy (W) | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Western City Rangers (W) | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Sydney University (W) | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| APIA Leichardt (W) | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| NWS Spirit (W) | 8-3 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 5 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: University NSW (W) (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
University NSW (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 28/06 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 14/06 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/05 | APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
5-0 | 8-3 | 8 | 1 | W |
Manly Utd (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 05/07 | Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 28/06 | APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 07/06 | Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 31/05 | Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 27/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in University NSW (W) vs Manly Utd (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a University NSW (W) win (63%). Probabilities: University NSW (W) 63%, draw 23%, Manly Utd (W) 14%.
How many goals are expected in University NSW (W) vs Manly Utd (W)?
The model expects 2.52 goals (University NSW (W) 1.81 · Manly Utd (W) 0.71), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in University NSW (W) vs Manly Utd (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.