Football · Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 · 25/07, 21:00

Prediction: Democrata SL vs CA Patrocinense

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Democrata SL1.48

CA Patrocinense0.83

1X2

51% 29% 20%

Democrata SL Draw CA Patrocinense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Democrata SL 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWLWDW

CA Patrocinense 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLWLLL

Head-to-head

Democrata SL 2–1–1 CA Patrocinense (4 last)

CA Patrocinense1-4Democrata SL
CA Patrocinense1-1Democrata SL
Democrata SL1-0CA Patrocinense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Democrata SL 1540 · CA Patrocinense 1480

	Democrata SL	Draw	CA Patrocinense
Our model	51%	29%	20%
Market	51%	29%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Democrata SL (rating 1540 vs 1480).
H2H favours Democrata SL: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Democrata SL	CA Patrocinense
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	0.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/33/11%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.7	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.84 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:33 +8’	1.75	3.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:19 +1’	1.82	2.92	4.29
14:45 +1’	1.82	2.90▼	4.31▲
20:04 +1’	1.84▲	2.93▲	4.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Democrata SL 2–1–1 CA Patrocinense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	CA Patrocinense	1-4 HT 0-1	Democrata SL
27/07/25 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	CA Patrocinense	1-1 HT 1-1	Democrata SL
05/07/25 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	Democrata SL	1-0 HT 0-0	CA Patrocinense
12/03/23 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro	CA Patrocinense	2-0 HT 1-0	Democrata SL

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2 · Mineiro, Modulo II 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valeriodoce EC	10	5	5	0	9	4	20
2	Democrata SL	10	5	2	3	19	10	17
3	SC Aymores	10	4	4	2	17	9	16
4	Villa Nova	10	4	2	4	17	12	14
5	Coimbra	10	2	4	4	12	12	10
6	Ipatinga	10	1	1	8	6	33	-2

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Democrata SL

WLDLWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	CA Patrocinense Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
12/07	SC Aymores Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	2-1	2-2	2	7	D
04/07	Ipatinga Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-0	5-0	6	4	W
02/07	Valeriodoce EC Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
27/06	Coimbra Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
24/06	Villa Nova Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
21/06	Villa Nova Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
17/06	Coimbra Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-0	1-1	2	10	D
13/06	Valeriodoce EC Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
06/06	Ipatinga Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	–	5-1	–	–	W

CA Patrocinense

WDDWDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Democrata SL Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-1	1-4	8	5	L
12/07	Mamore Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
04/07	Guarani MG Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
02/07	Caldense MG Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-1	2-1	5	12	W
28/06	Uberaba Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
25/06	Boa Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
21/06	Boa Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
18/06	Uberaba Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
14/06	Caldense MG Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
06/06	Guarani MG Brazil Campeonato Mineiro 2	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Democrata SL vs CA Patrocinense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Democrata SL win (51%). Probabilities: Democrata SL 51%, draw 29%, CA Patrocinense 20%.

How many goals are expected in Democrata SL vs CA Patrocinense?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Democrata SL 1.48 · CA Patrocinense 0.83), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Democrata SL vs CA Patrocinense?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.