Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 26/07, 03:00

Prediction: Dorados vs Cancun FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Dorados1.07

Cancun FC1.41

1X2

27% 29% 43%

Dorados Draw Cancun FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dorados 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Cancun FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Dorados 2–1–3 Cancun FC (6 last)

Cancun FC3-1Dorados
Dorados0-1Cancun FC
Cancun FC1-0Dorados

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cancun FC (rating 1437 vs 1543).
H2H favours Cancun FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dorados	Cancun FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.9	1.5 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.6	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.97

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:27

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.55 → 3.59▲	Pinn 3.59
X	3.27 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.30
2	2.04 → 2.06▲	Pinn 2.06

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:27	3.55	3.27	2.04
15:26	3.59▲	3.30▲	2.06▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dorados 2–1–3 Cancun FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Dorados
03/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	0-1 HT 0-0	Cancun FC
09/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Dorados
30/10/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	4-1 HT 4-1	Cancun FC
10/04/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	2-2 HT 1-2	Dorados
13/08/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	1-0 HT 0-0	Cancun FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oaxaca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Morelia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cancun FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mineros de Zacatecas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tapatio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Correcaminos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club Atletico La Paz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dorados	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jaiba Brava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Universidad Guadalajara	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Piratas Veracruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tepatitlan FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tlaxcala FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Venados FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dorados	Cancun FC
Tapatio	3-1 W	1-0 W
Correcaminos	2-1 W	3-1 W
Atlante	0-2 L	2-1 W
Universidad Guadalajara	1-1 D	2-1 W
Jaiba Brava	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cancun FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dorados

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	8	W
04/04	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	3	0	L
29/03	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
22/03	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	2	10	L
15/03	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
09/03	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
28/02	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-3	3	6	L
21/02	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
14/02	Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-5	3	3	L
08/02	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	5	9	D

Cancun FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	Unam Pumas America Friendlies	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
04/07	Toluca America Friendlies	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
04/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	13	5	D
01/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-2	0	5	L
27/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
24/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
19/04	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
12/04	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
04/04	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-1	0	4	W
29/03	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	4	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dorados vs Cancun FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cancun FC win (43%). Probabilities: Dorados 27%, draw 29%, Cancun FC 43%.

How many goals are expected in Dorados vs Cancun FC?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Dorados 1.07 · Cancun FC 1.41), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dorados vs Cancun FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.