Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 20/08, 00:00

Prediction: GE Bage vs Guarani de Venancio Aires

Team pages: GE Bage · Guarani de Venancio Aires

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

GE Bage1.23

Guarani de Venancio Aires0.88

1X2

44% 30% 26%

GE Bage Draw Guarani de Venancio Aires

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

GE Bage 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLWDLL

Guarani de Venancio Aires 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDLDWL

Head-to-head

GE Bage 2–4–0 Guarani de Venancio Aires (6 last)

Guarani de Venancio Aires2-2GE Bage
GE Bage1-1Guarani de Venancio Aires
GE Bage0-0Guarani de Venancio Aires
Guarani de Venancio Aires1-2GE Bage
Guarani de Venancio Aires1-2GE Bage
Guarani de Venancio Aires2-2GE Bage

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GE Bage 1472 · Guarani de Venancio Aires 1526

	GE Bage	Draw	Guarani de Venancio Aires
Our model	43%	32%	25%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guarani de Venancio Aires (rating 1472 vs 1526).
H2H favours GE Bage: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GE Bage	Guarani de Venancio Aires
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.4	2.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:45 +3’	2.05	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · GE Bage 2–4–0 Guarani de Venancio Aires

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Guarani de Venancio Aires	2-2 HT 2-1	GE Bage
14/05/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	GE Bage	1-1	Guarani de Venancio Aires
26/09/21 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	GE Bage	0-0 HT 0-0	Guarani de Venancio Aires
26/08/21 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Guarani de Venancio Aires	1-2 HT 1-1	GE Bage
10/03/19 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Guarani de Venancio Aires	1-2 HT 1-1	GE Bage
15/04/18 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Guarani de Venancio Aires	2-2 HT 2-1	GE Bage

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Veranopolis	5	3	2	0	6	0	11
2	Passo Fundo	5	3	2	0	5	0	11
3	CE Bento Goncalves	5	2	3	0	4	1	9
4	Santa Cruz RS	5	2	3	0	4	2	9
5	APAFUT	5	2	2	1	6	3	8
6	Aimore RS	5	2	2	1	4	5	8
7	Sport Clube Gaucho	5	2	1	2	6	4	7
8	Uniao Frederiquense	5	2	1	2	5	3	7
9	EC Pelotas	5	2	1	2	3	5	7
10	Brasil de Pelotas	4	1	3	0	4	2	6
11	Brasil de Farroupilha	4	1	2	1	3	2	5
12	Guarani de Venancio Aires	5	1	2	2	3	6	5
13	Gramadense	5	1	1	3	3	6	4
14	GE Bage	5	1	1	3	4	9	4
15	GE Gloria	5	0	2	3	2	5	2
16	Lajeadense	5	0	0	5	1	10	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GE Bage	Guarani de Venancio Aires
APAFUT	0-3 L	3-1 W
Brasil de Pelotas	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

GE Bage

DLWLWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
13/08	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
09/08	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
06/08	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
02/08	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	0-3	2	6	L
05/07	Gramadense Brazil Copa Gaucho	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
27/06	Gramadense Brazil Copa Gaucho	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
17/06	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Copa Gaucho	1-1	2-1	18	6	W
14/06	Guarany de Bage Brazil Copa Gaucho	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
04/06	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Copa Gaucho	0-0	1-1	3	5	D

Guarani de Venancio Aires

WWWDWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-3	2	5	L
13/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
07/08	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
01/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
07/12	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3	1-0	3-1	2	8	W
04/12	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
30/11	Rio Grande Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3	2-0	4-0	6	4	W
23/11	Rio Grande Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
09/11	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3	2-1	4-2	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GE Bage vs Guarani de Venancio Aires?

According to our model, the most likely result is a GE Bage win (44%). Probabilities: GE Bage 44%, draw 30%, Guarani de Venancio Aires 26%.

How many goals are expected in GE Bage vs Guarani de Venancio Aires?

The model expects 2.11 goals (GE Bage 1.23 · Guarani de Venancio Aires 0.88), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in GE Bage vs Guarani de Venancio Aires?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.