Football · USA NPSL · 19/07, 03:00
Prediction: El Farolito vs Duluth FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.8Total
El Farolito2.83
Duluth FC0.97
1X2
El Farolito
Draw
Duluth FC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
El Farolito
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Duluth FC
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
El Farolito
1–0
Duluth FC
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · El Farolito 1618 · Duluth FC 1589
| El Farolito | Draw | Duluth FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Market | 75% | 16% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| El Farolito | Duluth FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.4 / 0.6 | 2.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.3 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.5 / 6 | – / – |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.8 | – / – |
Head-to-head (H2H) · El Farolito 1–0–0 Duluth FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/24 USA NPSL | El Farolito | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Duluth FC |
Standings · USA NPSL · Golden Gate Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Farolito | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 50 | 6 | 25 |
| 2 | Oakland Stompers | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 39 | 19 | 20 |
| 3 | Cruizers FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 18 | 14 |
| 4 | Sun City FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Vacaville Elite | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 52 | 5 |
| 6 | Real San Jose | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 59 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
El Farolito
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Sun City FC USA NPSL |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 11/07 | Cruizers FC USA NPSL |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Cruizers FC USA NPSL |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 17/06 | Real San Jose USA NPSL |
5-0 | 6-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | Oakland Stompers USA NPSL |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 04/06 | Vacaville Elite USA NPSL |
2-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | Sun City FC USA NPSL |
2-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Cruizers FC USA NPSL |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Oakland Stompers USA NPSL |
3-3 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Vacaville Elite USA NPSL |
5-1 | 12-1 | – | – | W |
Duluth FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Siouxland United FC USA NPSL |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/07 | Dakota Fusion FC USA NPSL |
1-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 02/07 | Dakota Fusion FC USA NPSL |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | Minnesota Blizzard FC USA NPSL |
4-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/06 | Dakota Fusion FC USA NPSL |
2-2 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Sioux Falls Thunder FC USA NPSL |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Siouxland United FC USA NPSL |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 13/06 | Sioux Falls Thunder FC USA NPSL |
0-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 04/06 | Minnesota Blizzard FC USA NPSL |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Joy St Louis Park USA NPSL |
1-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in El Farolito vs Duluth FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a El Farolito win (75%). Probabilities: El Farolito 75%, draw 16%, Duluth FC 10%.
How many goals are expected in El Farolito vs Duluth FC?
The model expects 3.8 goals (El Farolito 2.83 · Duluth FC 0.97), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in El Farolito vs Duluth FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.