Football · England National League North · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Southport vs Macclesfield

Team pages: Southport · Macclesfield

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Southport0.91

Macclesfield1.73

1X2

19% 24% 56%

Southport Draw Macclesfield

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Southport 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLDLLD

Macclesfield 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLDDWWL

Head-to-head

Southport 1–1–4 Macclesfield (6 last)

Macclesfield2-1Southport
Southport1-2Macclesfield
Southport1-2Macclesfield
Macclesfield3-1Southport
Southport3-1Macclesfield
Macclesfield0-0Southport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southport 1428 · Macclesfield 1559

	Southport	Draw	Macclesfield
Our model	18%	26%	56%
Market	20%	23%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macclesfield (rating 1428 vs 1559).
H2H favours Macclesfield: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southport	Macclesfield
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.1	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.90

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +13’	4.50	3.90	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Southport 1–1–4 Macclesfield

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 England National League North	Macclesfield	2-1 HT 0-0	Southport
19/08/25 England National League North	Southport	1-2 HT 0-1	Macclesfield
04/04/17 England National League	Southport	1-2 HT 1-2	Macclesfield
16/08/16 England National League	Macclesfield	3-1 HT 3-0	Southport
05/12/15 England National League	Southport	3-1 HT 1-1	Macclesfield
11/08/15 England National League	Macclesfield	0-0 HT 0-0	Southport

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	12	8	2	2	24	7	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	22	8	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	21	18	23
5	Kings Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
6	Hednesford	13	6	3	4	23	19	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	15	12	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	23	23	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	16	16	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	14	11	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Worksop	13	5	2	6	15	20	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	14	13	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	15	16	15
19	Radcliffe FC	13	5	0	8	16	21	15
20	Brackley	13	4	3	6	15	24	15
21	AFC Telford	13	3	4	6	13	20	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	12	26	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southport	Macclesfield
Harborough Town	0-1 L	1-0 W
Spennymoor Town	2-2 D	1-1 D
Spalding United	0-2 L	0-0 D
Hereford FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Scarborough Athletic	1-5 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Macclesfield (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southport

WLLLWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
10/10	Harborough Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
26/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	2-0	2-2	9	2	D
12/09	Worksop England National League North	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
08/09	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
31/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
29/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	1-5	2	1	L
22/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	4-1	5	4	W

Macclesfield

DWWWLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
10/10	South Shields England National League North	2-3	4-3	3	6	W
26/09	Harborough Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
12/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	11	6	D
08/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
05/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
31/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
29/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
22/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
18/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southport vs Macclesfield?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Macclesfield win (56%). Probabilities: Southport 19%, draw 24%, Macclesfield 56%.

How many goals are expected in Southport vs Macclesfield?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Southport 0.91 · Macclesfield 1.73), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Southport vs Macclesfield?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.