Football · England National League South · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Totton vs Dag & Red

Team pages: AFC Totton · Dag & Red

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

AFC Totton1.06

Dag & Red1.56

1X2

25% 27% 48%

AFC Totton Draw Dag & Red

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Totton 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWWLW

Dag & Red 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDLWLDD

Head-to-head

AFC Totton 1–1 Dag & Red (2 last)

Dag & Red0-2AFC Totton
AFC Totton0-5Dag & Red

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Totton 1465 · Dag & Red 1474

	AFC Totton	Draw	Dag & Red
Our model	24%	28%	48%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Totton	Dag & Red
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	0.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:49 +9’	3.50	3.50	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Totton 1–0–1 Dag & Red

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 England National League South	Dag & Red	0-2 HT 0-2	AFC Totton
29/11/25 England National League South	AFC Totton	0-5 HT 0-4	Dag & Red

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Totton	Dag & Red
Horsham	3-2 W	1-1 D
Hemel Hempstead	3-1 W	0-0 D
Dover	0-2 L	0-1 L
Weston Super Mare	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Totton

LLLLLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Horsham England National League South	2-2	3-2	4	5	W
31/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-3	1-3	7	5	L
27/10	Torquay England National League South	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
24/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
17/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
13/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-5	3	5	L
10/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
26/09	Dover England National League South	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
12/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
08/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-2	1-3	3	4	L

Dag & Red

DLLWDLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Billericay Town England National League South	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
31/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
27/10	Braintree Town England National League South	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
24/10	Chesham England National League South	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/10	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
10/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
26/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
08/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
05/09	Horsham England National League South	1-1	1-1	8	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Totton vs Dag & Red?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dag & Red win (48%). Probabilities: AFC Totton 25%, draw 27%, Dag & Red 48%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Totton vs Dag & Red?

The model expects 2.61 goals (AFC Totton 1.06 · Dag & Red 1.56), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Totton vs Dag & Red?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.