Football · England National League South · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Braintree Town vs Torquay

Team pages: Braintree Town · Torquay

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

Braintree Town1.3

Torquay2.25

1X2

20% 22% 58%

Braintree Town Draw Torquay

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Braintree Town 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWWLL

Torquay 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWDLWW

Head-to-head

Braintree Town 2–1–3 Torquay (6 last)

Braintree Town1-0Torquay
Torquay2-1Braintree Town
Torquay3-1Braintree Town
Braintree Town2-0Torquay
Braintree Town1-3Torquay
Torquay0-0Braintree Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Braintree Town 1434 · Torquay 1532

	Braintree Town	Draw	Torquay
Our model	20%	21%	58%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torquay (rating 1434 vs 1532).
H2H favours Torquay: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Braintree Town	Torquay
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.6	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.2	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.00

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:34 +33’	4.50	4.00	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Braintree Town 2–1–3 Torquay

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/02/24 England National League South	Braintree Town	1-0 HT 0-0	Torquay
28/08/23 England National League South	Torquay	2-1 HT 0-1	Braintree Town
17/04/17 England National League	Torquay	3-1 HT 1-1	Braintree Town
10/12/16 England FA Trophy	Braintree Town	2-0 HT 0-0	Torquay
29/08/16 England National League	Braintree Town	1-3 HT 1-2	Torquay
08/03/16 England National League	Torquay	0-0 HT 0-0	Braintree Town

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Braintree Town	Torquay
Farnham	0-6 L	0-2 L
Walton & Hersham	1-3 L	3-0 W
Dorking Wanderers	3-4 L	2-2 D
Billericay Town	2-3 L	0-3 L
Maidstone Utd	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Torquay (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Braintree Town

WLLLLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
07/11	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
31/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
27/10	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
24/10	Farnham England National League South	0-2	0-6	5	3	L
10/10	Truro City England National League South	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
06/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
26/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-2	3-4	6	5	L
15/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
12/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	2-1	3	4	W

Torquay

LWWDLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	2-0	2-0	8	7	W
31/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
27/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
24/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
10/10	Slough England National League South	0-0	5-1	6	4	W
26/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
12/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-1	2-2	6	8	D
08/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	4-0	2	9	W
05/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
31/08	Farnham England National League South	0-0	0-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Braintree Town vs Torquay?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Torquay win (58%). Probabilities: Braintree Town 20%, draw 22%, Torquay 58%.

How many goals are expected in Braintree Town vs Torquay?

The model expects 3.55 goals (Braintree Town 1.3 · Torquay 2.25), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Braintree Town vs Torquay?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.