Football · England National League South · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Dorking Wanderers vs Ebbsfleet United

Team pages: Dorking Wanderers · Ebbsfleet United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Dorking Wanderers1.74

Ebbsfleet United1.89

1X2

35% 24% 41%

Dorking Wanderers Draw Ebbsfleet United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Dorking Wanderers 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDDDWDWDWW

Ebbsfleet United 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Dorking Wanderers 2–2–2 Ebbsfleet United (6 last)

Dorking Wanderers3-1Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United2-1Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers1-4Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United0-1Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers2-2Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United1-1Dorking Wanderers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dorking Wanderers 1558 · Ebbsfleet United 1616

	Dorking Wanderers	Draw	Ebbsfleet United
Our model	35%	24%	41%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ebbsfleet United (rating 1558 vs 1616).
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dorking Wanderers	Ebbsfleet United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.8	3.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 6.1	3.5 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +6’	2.60	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dorking Wanderers 2–2–2 Ebbsfleet United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	3-1 HT 0-1	Ebbsfleet United
18/10/25 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	2-1 HT 0-0	Dorking Wanderers
24/02/24 England National League	Dorking Wanderers	1-4 HT 1-2	Ebbsfleet United
26/09/23 England National League	Ebbsfleet United	0-1 HT 0-0	Dorking Wanderers
21/05/22 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	2-2 HT 1-1	Ebbsfleet United
26/03/22 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	1-1 HT 1-1	Dorking Wanderers

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dorking Wanderers	Ebbsfleet United
Hampton & Richmond	3-2 W	2-0 W
Weston Super Mare	2-0 W	6-1 W
Chelmsford	3-3 D	2-2 D
Truro City	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ebbsfleet United (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dorking Wanderers

WDDDWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
31/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
27/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-2	3-3	13	3	D
24/10	Slough England National League South	0-1	3-1	6	4	W
10/10	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
26/09	Braintree Town England National League South	2-2	4-3	3	5	W
12/09	Torquay England National League South	1-1	2-2	8	8	D
08/09	Chelmsford England National League South	2-3	3-3	3	5	D
05/09	Billericay Town England National League South	2-2	3-3	7	4	D
31/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W

Ebbsfleet United

WWWDWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Chelmsford England National League South	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
07/11	Chesham England National League South	0-0	1-0	13	3	W
03/11	Farnborough England National League South	3-0	6-0	4	2	W
31/10	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-3	2	7	L
27/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	3-1	6	7	W
24/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	2-0	4-0	5	4	W
20/10	Horsham England National League South	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
17/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	4-0	6-1	10	5	W
13/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	5-0	5	5	W
10/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dorking Wanderers vs Ebbsfleet United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ebbsfleet United win (41%). Probabilities: Dorking Wanderers 35%, draw 24%, Ebbsfleet United 41%.

How many goals are expected in Dorking Wanderers vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Dorking Wanderers 1.74 · Ebbsfleet United 1.89), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dorking Wanderers vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.