Football · England National League South · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Dover vs Horsham

Team pages: Dover · Horsham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Dover1.23

Horsham1.51

1X2

30% 27% 43%

Dover Draw Horsham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Dover 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWDDLW

Horsham 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWDWDWL

Head-to-head

Dover 1–2–1 Horsham (4 last)

Horsham1-1Dover
Dover1-1Horsham
Dover1-2Horsham
Horsham1-3Dover

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dover 1573 · Horsham 1517

	Dover	Draw	Horsham
Our model	30%	28%	43%
Market	31%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dover (rating 1573 vs 1517).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dover	Horsham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	3.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:40 +17’	2.90	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dover 1–2–1 Horsham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/11/25 England National League South	Horsham	1-1 HT 1-0	Dover
11/10/25 England National League South	Dover	1-1 HT 0-0	Horsham
01/01/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Dover	1-2	Horsham
26/08/24 England Ryman Premier Division	Horsham	1-3	Dover

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dover	Horsham
Chelmsford	0-1 L	0-0 D
AFC Totton	2-0 W	2-3 L
Farnborough	1-0 W	5-0 W
Maidenhead Utd	0-3 L	1-1 D
Chesham	2-2 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Horsham (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dover

DDLWWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Farnham England National League South	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
27/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
24/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
10/10	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/09	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
12/09	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
08/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
05/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
31/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-1	3-3	4	4	D

Horsham

DLDLWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	AFC Totton England National League South	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
31/10	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	5-0	7	2	W
27/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	1-1	12	0	D
24/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
20/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
17/10	Slough England National League South	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
10/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
26/09	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/09	Chesham England National League South	0-1	1-4	2	11	L
08/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dover vs Horsham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Horsham win (43%). Probabilities: Dover 30%, draw 27%, Horsham 43%.

How many goals are expected in Dover vs Horsham?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Dover 1.23 · Horsham 1.51), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dover vs Horsham?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.