Football · England National League South · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Farnborough vs Salisbury FC

Team pages: Farnborough · Salisbury FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Farnborough1.19

Salisbury FC1.97

1X2

22% 23% 55%

Farnborough Draw Salisbury FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Farnborough 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLWLLL

Salisbury FC 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Farnborough 2–1–3 Salisbury FC (6 last)

Farnborough1-0Salisbury FC
Salisbury FC1-0Farnborough
Salisbury FC0-0Farnborough
Salisbury FC3-0Farnborough
Farnborough3-1Salisbury FC
Salisbury FC1-0Farnborough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Farnborough 1415 · Salisbury FC 1632

	Farnborough	Draw	Salisbury FC
Our model	22%	24%	54%
Market	22%	23%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Salisbury FC (rating 1415 vs 1632).
H2H favours Salisbury FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Farnborough	Salisbury FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.5	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.5	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.90

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:41 +16’	4.10	3.90	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Farnborough 2–1–3 Salisbury FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/12/25 England National League South	Farnborough	1-0 HT 1-0	Salisbury FC
21/10/25 England National League South	Salisbury FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Farnborough
21/01/25 England National League South	Salisbury FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Farnborough
16/11/24 England FA Trophy	Salisbury FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Farnborough
07/09/24 England National League South	Farnborough	3-1 HT 1-0	Salisbury FC
26/03/22 England Southern Premier League South	Salisbury FC	1-0	Farnborough

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Farnborough	Salisbury FC
Chelmsford	1-2 L	1-1 D
Ebbsfleet United	0-6 L	1-1 D
Folkestone Invicta	0-2 L	2-0 W
Walton & Hersham	2-2 D	2-0 W
Dover	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Salisbury FC (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Farnborough

LLDLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Chelmsford England National League South	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
03/11	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-3	0-6	1	2	L
31/10	Horsham England National League South	0-2	0-5	10	2	L
28/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
24/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
17/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
10/10	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-4	8	2	L
26/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
12/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
08/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	3	L

Salisbury FC

DWDWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Braintree Town England National League South	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
31/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-1	2-1	6	3	W
27/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
24/10	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
10/10	Farnham England National League South	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	2-0	2-0	9	0	W
15/09	Truro City England National League South	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
12/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
08/09	Slough England National League South	2-1	5-1	3	3	W
05/09	Chelmsford England National League South	1-1	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Farnborough vs Salisbury FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Salisbury FC win (55%). Probabilities: Farnborough 22%, draw 23%, Salisbury FC 55%.

How many goals are expected in Farnborough vs Salisbury FC?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Farnborough 1.19 · Salisbury FC 1.97), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Farnborough vs Salisbury FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.