Football · England National League South · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Maidenhead Utd vs Folkestone Invicta

Team pages: Maidenhead Utd · Folkestone Invicta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Maidenhead Utd1.62

Folkestone Invicta1.36

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Maidenhead Utd Draw Folkestone Invicta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Maidenhead Utd 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLLDDD

Folkestone Invicta 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLLDWWLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maidenhead Utd 1467 · Folkestone Invicta 1448

	Maidenhead Utd	Draw	Folkestone Invicta
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maidenhead Utd	Folkestone Invicta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	1.7 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:48 +9’	2.10	3.40	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maidenhead Utd	Folkestone Invicta
Horsham	1-1 D	1-1 D
Ebbsfleet United	0-4 L	0-1 L
Tonbridge Angels	0-1 L	0-2 L
Chesham	4-0 W	2-2 D
Torquay	0-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maidenhead Utd

WLDWLLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
31/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
27/10	Horsham England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	0	D
24/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
17/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
10/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
26/09	Chesham England National League South	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
12/09	Billericay Town England National League South	1-1	2-2	10	2	D
08/09	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-4	2	9	L
05/09	Dover England National League South	1-0	3-0	13	5	W

Folkestone Invicta

LDLLLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Chesham England National League South	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
27/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
24/10	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
17/10	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
10/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
06/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
26/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
12/09	Farnham England National League South	0-1	1-2	10	1	L
08/09	Horsham England National League South	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Torquay England National League South	0-2	2-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maidenhead Utd vs Folkestone Invicta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maidenhead Utd win (43%). Probabilities: Maidenhead Utd 43%, draw 26%, Folkestone Invicta 31%.

How many goals are expected in Maidenhead Utd vs Folkestone Invicta?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Maidenhead Utd 1.62 · Folkestone Invicta 1.36), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Maidenhead Utd vs Folkestone Invicta?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.