Football · England National League South · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Maidstone Utd vs Farnham

Team pages: Maidstone Utd · Farnham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Maidstone Utd1.87

Farnham1.27

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Maidstone Utd Draw Farnham

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Maidstone Utd 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWDLWW

Farnham 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWWLWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maidstone Utd 1515 · Farnham 1541

	Maidstone Utd	Draw	Farnham
Our model	50%	25%	25%
Market	51%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maidstone Utd	Farnham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	2.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.80

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:40 +26’	1.75	3.80	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maidstone Utd	Farnham
Hemel Hempstead	2-1 W	1-1 D
Truro City	1-2 L	2-2 D
Braintree Town	1-2 L	6-0 W
Tonbridge Angels	1-0 W	3-1 W
Weston Super Mare	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Farnham (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maidstone Utd

WWLLWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
31/10	Slough England National League South	1-0	2-1	8	9	W
27/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-1	1-3	5	7	L
24/10	Torquay England National League South	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
17/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
10/10	Horsham England National League South	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
26/09	Truro City England National League South	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
12/09	Braintree Town England National League South	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
08/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Farnham

DWWDLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-1	3-1	7	1	W
02/11	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
31/10	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
27/10	Chesham England National League South	2-1	4-2	1	1	W
24/10	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	6-0	6	3	W
10/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
06/10	Truro City England National League South	0-2	2-2	4	2	D
26/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	3-1	3-2	0	3	W
12/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
05/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maidstone Utd vs Farnham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maidstone Utd win (51%). Probabilities: Maidstone Utd 51%, draw 24%, Farnham 25%.

How many goals are expected in Maidstone Utd vs Farnham?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Maidstone Utd 1.87 · Farnham 1.27), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Maidstone Utd vs Farnham?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.