Football · England National League South · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Tonbridge Angels vs Weston Super Mare

Team pages: Tonbridge Angels · Weston Super Mare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Tonbridge Angels1.33

Weston Super Mare1.29

1X2

37% 27% 35%

Tonbridge Angels Draw Weston Super Mare

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tonbridge Angels 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Weston Super Mare 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tonbridge Angels 2–1–3 Weston Super Mare (6 last)

Weston Super Mare0-1Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels0-0Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare3-0Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels2-0Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare3-1Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels0-1Weston Super Mare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tonbridge Angels 1531 · Weston Super Mare 1465

	Tonbridge Angels	Draw	Weston Super Mare
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tonbridge Angels (rating 1531 vs 1465).
H2H favours Weston Super Mare: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tonbridge Angels	Weston Super Mare
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +11’	2.35	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tonbridge Angels 2–1–3 Weston Super Mare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	0-1 HT 0-0	Tonbridge Angels
25/10/25 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	0-0 HT 0-0	Weston Super Mare
15/04/25 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	3-0 HT 1-0	Tonbridge Angels
04/01/25 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	2-0 HT 1-0	Weston Super Mare
27/01/24 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	3-1 HT 1-1	Tonbridge Angels
12/08/23 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	0-1 HT 0-1	Weston Super Mare

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tonbridge Angels	Weston Super Mare
Farnham	1-3 L	2-3 L
Folkestone Invicta	2-0 W	1-1 D
Chelmsford	3-3 D	1-1 D
Ebbsfleet United	1-2 L	1-6 L
Maidstone Utd	0-1 L	0-1 L
Farnborough	4-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tonbridge Angels (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tonbridge Angels

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Farnham England National League South	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
31/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
27/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-0	2-0	8	7	W
24/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	3-3	4	3	D
17/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
10/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
26/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
12/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
08/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	4-0	2	3	W

Weston Super Mare

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	4-1	3	2	W
31/10	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
28/10	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	1-2	8	3	L
17/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-4	1-6	3	5	L
10/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
26/09	Farnham England National League South	1-3	2-3	5	3	L
12/09	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
08/09	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
05/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
31/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tonbridge Angels vs Weston Super Mare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tonbridge Angels win (37%). Probabilities: Tonbridge Angels 37%, draw 27%, Weston Super Mare 35%.

How many goals are expected in Tonbridge Angels vs Weston Super Mare?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Tonbridge Angels 1.33 · Weston Super Mare 1.29), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tonbridge Angels vs Weston Super Mare?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.