Football · England National League South · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Truro City vs Hemel Hempstead

Team pages: Truro City · Hemel Hempstead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Truro City1.87

Hemel Hempstead0.83

1X2

61% 23% 16%

Truro City Draw Hemel Hempstead

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Truro City 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDWWWW

Hemel Hempstead 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDWDLLDLLL

Head-to-head

Truro City 1–2–3 Hemel Hempstead (6 last)

Hemel Hempstead3-0Truro City
Truro City1-0Hemel Hempstead
Truro City0-2Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead0-0Truro City
Hemel Hempstead1-1Truro City
Truro City1-2Hemel Hempstead

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Truro City 1589 · Hemel Hempstead 1428

	Truro City	Draw	Hemel Hempstead
Our model	61%	24%	15%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Truro City (rating 1589 vs 1428).
H2H favours Hemel Hempstead: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Truro City	Hemel Hempstead
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.10

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:04 +2’	1.44	4.10	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Truro City 1–2–3 Hemel Hempstead

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/25 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	3-0 HT 2-0	Truro City
05/10/24 England National League South	Truro City	1-0 HT 1-0	Hemel Hempstead
04/04/24 England National League South	Truro City	0-2 HT 0-1	Hemel Hempstead
02/09/23 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	0-0 HT 0-0	Truro City
13/04/19 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-1 HT 1-0	Truro City
13/10/18 England National League South	Truro City	1-2 HT 0-1	Hemel Hempstead

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Truro City	Hemel Hempstead
Ebbsfleet United	3-0 W	0-0 D
Slough	3-1 W	2-0 W
Maidstone Utd	2-1 W	1-2 L
Dorking Wanderers	0-1 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Truro City (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Truro City

LWDLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	3-0	3	7	W
27/10	Slough England National League South	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
24/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-2	4-3	2	3	W
10/10	Braintree Town England National League South	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
06/10	Farnham England National League South	2-0	2-2	7	2	D
26/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
15/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
12/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
05/09	Chesham England National League South	1-1	3-1	11	1	W
31/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Hemel Hempstead

DDWDLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Torquay England National League South	0-2	0-2	7	7	L
07/11	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
31/10	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-5	8	4	L
27/10	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-1	3-3	2	3	D
24/10	AFC Totton England National League South	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
17/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
10/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
26/09	Slough England National League South	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
12/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
08/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-0	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Truro City vs Hemel Hempstead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Truro City win (61%). Probabilities: Truro City 61%, draw 23%, Hemel Hempstead 16%.

How many goals are expected in Truro City vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Truro City 1.87 · Hemel Hempstead 0.83), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Truro City vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.