Football · England National League South · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Walton & Hersham vs Chelmsford

Team pages: Walton & Hersham · Chelmsford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Walton & Hersham1.04

Chelmsford2.07

1X2

18% 22% 60%

Walton & Hersham Draw Chelmsford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Walton & Hersham 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDWWLLLL

Chelmsford 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWDWWLWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Walton & Hersham 1442 · Chelmsford 1547

	Walton & Hersham	Draw	Chelmsford
Our model	17%	23%	60%
Market	18%	21%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelmsford (rating 1442 vs 1547).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Walton & Hersham	Chelmsford
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.20

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:57 +9’	5.00	4.20	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England National League South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Walton & Hersham	Chelmsford
Horsham	0-1 L	0-0 D
AFC Totton	1-0 W	3-1 W
Farnborough	2-2 D	2-1 W
Ebbsfleet United	0-2 L	2-2 D
Tonbridge Angels	1-5 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmsford (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Walton & Hersham

LLDDWWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Slough England National League South	0-0	1-3	1	3	L
31/10	Torquay England National League South	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
27/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
24/10	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
10/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
06/10	Braintree Town England National League South	1-1	3-1	2	5	W
26/09	Farnborough England National League South	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
12/09	Truro City England National League South	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
31/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-3	1-5	4	2	L

Chelmsford

DDDWDWWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-1	2-2	6	2	D
07/11	Farnborough England National League South	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
02/11	Farnham England National League South	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
31/10	AFC Totton England National League South	3-0	3-1	6	5	W
27/10	Dover England National League South	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
24/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-0	3-3	8	3	D
10/10	Chesham England National League South	5-0	5-0	2	3	W
26/09	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
12/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	3-2	3-3	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Walton & Hersham vs Chelmsford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelmsford win (60%). Probabilities: Walton & Hersham 18%, draw 22%, Chelmsford 60%.

How many goals are expected in Walton & Hersham vs Chelmsford?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Walton & Hersham 1.04 · Chelmsford 2.07), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Walton & Hersham vs Chelmsford?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.