Football · England National League South · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Folkestone Invicta vs Truro City

Team pages: Folkestone Invicta · Truro City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Folkestone Invicta1.2

Truro City1.62

1X2

28% 26% 47%

Folkestone Invicta Draw Truro City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Folkestone Invicta 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Truro City 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Folkestone Invicta 1470 · Truro City 1586

	Folkestone Invicta	Draw	Truro City
Our model	27%	27%	46%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Truro City (rating 1470 vs 1586).
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Folkestone Invicta	Truro City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.5	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.60

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +8’	3.20	3.60	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	14	9	4	1	35	10	31
2	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
3	Maidstone Utd	15	9	2	4	26	18	29
4	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
5	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
6	Farnham	15	8	2	5	29	19	26
7	Billericay Town	13	7	4	2	32	16	25
8	Tonbridge Angels	15	7	3	5	27	16	24
9	Dag & Red	15	7	3	5	13	11	24
10	Horsham	15	5	7	3	21	16	22
11	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
12	Chelmsford	14	4	9	1	21	14	21
13	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
14	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
15	Weston Super Mare	14	5	3	6	21	21	18
16	Farnborough	15	5	2	8	12	31	17
17	Braintree Town	14	5	1	8	21	34	16
18	AFC Totton	15	5	1	9	14	27	16
19	Maidenhead Utd	15	3	6	6	14	19	15
20	Hemel Hempstead	15	3	6	6	14	22	15
21	Chesham	14	3	2	9	20	32	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	15	2	3	10	18	36	9
23	Walton & Hersham	14	2	2	10	10	33	8
24	Slough	15	1	1	13	15	39	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Folkestone Invicta	Truro City
Chesham	2-2 D	3-1 W
Ebbsfleet United	0-1 L	3-0 W
Salisbury FC	0-2 L	0-1 L
Farnham	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Truro City (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Folkestone Invicta

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Chesham England National League South	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
27/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
24/10	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
17/10	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
10/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
06/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
26/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
12/09	Farnham England National League South	0-1	1-2	10	1	L
08/09	Horsham England National League South	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Torquay England National League South	0-2	2-3	6	4	L

Truro City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	3-0	3	7	W
27/10	Slough England National League South	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
24/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-2	4-3	2	3	W
10/10	Braintree Town England National League South	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
06/10	Farnham England National League South	2-0	2-2	7	2	D
26/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
15/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
12/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
05/09	Chesham England National League South	1-1	3-1	11	1	W
31/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Folkestone Invicta vs Truro City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Truro City win (47%). Probabilities: Folkestone Invicta 28%, draw 26%, Truro City 47%.

How many goals are expected in Folkestone Invicta vs Truro City?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Folkestone Invicta 1.2 · Truro City 1.62), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Folkestone Invicta vs Truro City?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.