Football · England National League · 20/11, 20:45
Prediction: Southend vs Boreham Wood
Team pages: Southend · Boreham Wood
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.95Total
Southend1.65
Boreham Wood2.3
1X2
Southend
Draw
Boreham Wood
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Southend
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Boreham Wood
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Southend
2–2–2
Boreham Wood
(6 last)
- Southend0-2Boreham Wood
- Boreham Wood1-1Southend
- Southend4-2Boreham Wood
- Boreham Wood1-1Southend
- Boreham Wood1-0Southend
- Southend2-0Boreham Wood
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Southend 1507 · Boreham Wood 1609
| Southend | Draw | Boreham Wood | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 21% | 52% |
| Market | 26% | 23% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boreham Wood (rating 1507 vs 1609).
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Southend | Boreham Wood | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.8 | 2.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.5 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.1 | 3.6 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Southend 2–2–2 Boreham Wood
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/26 England National League | Southend | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Boreham Wood |
| 30/09/25 England National League | Boreham Wood | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Southend |
| 01/04/24 England National League | Southend | 4-2 HT 3-0 | Boreham Wood |
| 28/10/23 England National League | Boreham Wood | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Southend |
| 14/03/23 England National League | Boreham Wood | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Southend |
| 20/12/22 England FA Trophy | Southend | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Boreham Wood |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 46 | 19 | 45 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 23 | 35 |
| 3 | Southend | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 40 | 28 | 32 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 25 | 32 |
| 5 | Yeovil | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 22 | 29 |
| 6 | Carlisle | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 23 | 29 |
| 7 | Worthing | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 26 | 29 |
| 8 | Barrow | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 19 | 28 |
| 9 | Altrincham | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 28 | 28 |
| 10 | Halifax | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 21 | 25 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 24 |
| 12 | AFC Hornchurch | 17 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 27 | 24 |
| 13 | Kidderminster | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 22 |
| 14 | Woking | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 24 | 21 |
| 15 | Aldershot | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 21 | 21 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 24 | 19 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 30 | 19 |
| 18 | Eastleigh | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 27 | 19 |
| 19 | Boston Utd | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 18 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 34 | 17 |
| 21 | Hartlepool | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 28 | 16 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 40 | 16 |
| 23 | Scunthorpe | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 11 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 16 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 37 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southend
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Aldershot England National League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 31/10 | Wealdstone England National League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 27/10 | Worthing England National League |
2-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 24/10 | Halifax England National League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 10/10 | Boston Utd England National League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 03/10 | AFC Fylde England National League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 30/09 | Eastleigh England National League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Barrow England National League |
0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 19/09 | Gateshead England National League |
6-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 15/09 | Tamworth England National League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
Boreham Wood
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Yeovil England National League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 31/10 | Hartlepool England National League |
2-0 | 4-3 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/10 | Woking England National League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 24/10 | AFC Fylde England National League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/10 | Sutton Utd England National League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/10 | Altrincham England National League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 29/09 | Kidderminster England National League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 26/09 | Solihull Moors England National League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Harrogate Town England National League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 16/09 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southend vs Boreham Wood?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Boreham Wood win (51%). Probabilities: Southend 27%, draw 22%, Boreham Wood 51%.
How many goals are expected in Southend vs Boreham Wood?
The model expects 3.95 goals (Southend 1.65 · Boreham Wood 2.3), with a 57% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Southend vs Boreham Wood?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.