Football · England National League · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Aldershot vs Scunthorpe

Team pages: Aldershot · Scunthorpe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

Aldershot1.69

Scunthorpe1.79

1X2

36% 24% 40%

Aldershot Draw Scunthorpe

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Aldershot 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLLWL

Scunthorpe 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Aldershot 2–1–1 Scunthorpe (4 last)

Aldershot3-1Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe2-1Aldershot
Aldershot2-1Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe3-3Aldershot

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aldershot 1432 · Scunthorpe 1436

	Aldershot	Draw	Scunthorpe
Our model	36%	24%	40%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Aldershot: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aldershot	Scunthorpe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.75

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.67
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.45 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:57 +31’	2.55	3.75	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +3’	2.67	3.60	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aldershot 2–1–1 Scunthorpe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England National League	Aldershot	3-1 HT 3-0	Scunthorpe
25/10/25 England National League	Scunthorpe	2-1 HT 2-1	Aldershot
15/04/23 England National League	Aldershot	2-1 HT 1-0	Scunthorpe
08/10/22 England National League	Scunthorpe	3-3 HT 3-1	Aldershot

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	17	14	3	0	46	19	45
2	Harrogate Town	17	11	2	4	38	23	35
3	Southend	17	9	5	3	40	28	32
4	AFC Fylde	17	10	2	5	32	25	32
5	Yeovil	17	8	5	4	37	22	29
6	Carlisle	17	8	5	4	34	23	29
7	Worthing	17	8	5	4	33	26	29
8	Barrow	16	8	4	4	29	19	28
9	Altrincham	17	9	1	7	24	28	28
10	Halifax	17	7	4	6	29	21	25
11	Sutton Utd	17	7	3	7	20	23	24
12	AFC Hornchurch	17	8	0	9	20	27	24
13	Kidderminster	17	5	7	5	18	17	22
14	Woking	16	6	3	7	25	24	21
15	Aldershot	17	6	3	8	20	21	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
17	Wealdstone	17	5	4	8	24	30	19
18	Eastleigh	17	5	4	8	20	27	19
19	Boston Utd	17	5	3	9	21	31	18
20	Tamworth	16	5	2	9	26	34	17
21	Hartlepool	17	5	1	11	19	28	16
22	Solihull Moors	17	5	1	11	21	40	16
23	Scunthorpe	16	3	2	11	20	31	11
24	Gateshead	16	1	1	14	9	37	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aldershot	Scunthorpe
Sutton Utd	0-2 L	2-0 W
AFC Hornchurch	1-2 L	0-1 L
Tamworth	5-1 W	1-4 L
Barrow	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Aldershot (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aldershot

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Southend England National League	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
31/10	Gateshead England National League	1-0	1-0	12	3	W
28/10	Sutton Utd England National League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
24/10	Wealdstone England National League	0-0	0-1	10	7	L
10/10	Altrincham England National League	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
03/10	Carlisle England National League	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
29/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
26/09	Tamworth England National League	4-0	5-1	2	4	W
19/09	Barrow England National League	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
15/09	Yeovil England National League	0-1	1-1	3	6	D

Scunthorpe

WLLWLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Worthing England National League	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
31/10	Boston Utd England National League	0-2	1-2	6	7	L
27/10	Tamworth England National League	1-3	1-4	3	3	L
24/10	Woking England National League	0-2	2-3	9	5	L
10/10	AFC Fylde England National League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/09	Barrow England National League	0-0	0-3	5	7	L
26/09	Hartlepool England National League	2-1	4-1	3	4	W
19/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
16/09	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
12/09	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aldershot vs Scunthorpe?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Scunthorpe win (40%). Probabilities: Aldershot 36%, draw 24%, Scunthorpe 40%.

How many goals are expected in Aldershot vs Scunthorpe?

The model expects 3.48 goals (Aldershot 1.69 · Scunthorpe 1.79), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Aldershot vs Scunthorpe?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.