Football · England National League · 21/11, 13:30
Prediction: Tamworth vs Eastleigh
Team pages: Tamworth · Eastleigh
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.09Total
Tamworth1.78
Eastleigh1.31
1X2
Tamworth
Draw
Eastleigh
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Tamworth
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Eastleigh
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tamworth
2–1–1
Eastleigh
(4 last)
- Eastleigh1-1Tamworth
- Tamworth1-0Eastleigh
- Tamworth2-0Eastleigh
- Eastleigh1-0Tamworth
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tamworth 1457 · Eastleigh 1444
| Tamworth | Draw | Eastleigh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tamworth: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tamworth | Eastleigh | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.3 | 1.4 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tamworth 2–1–1 Eastleigh
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 England National League | Eastleigh | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Tamworth |
| 06/09/25 England National League | Tamworth | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Eastleigh |
| 29/03/25 England National League | Tamworth | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Eastleigh |
| 07/09/24 England National League | Eastleigh | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tamworth |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 46 | 19 | 45 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 23 | 35 |
| 3 | Southend | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 40 | 28 | 32 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 25 | 32 |
| 5 | Yeovil | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 22 | 29 |
| 6 | Carlisle | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 23 | 29 |
| 7 | Worthing | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 26 | 29 |
| 8 | Barrow | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 19 | 28 |
| 9 | Altrincham | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 28 | 28 |
| 10 | Halifax | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 21 | 25 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 24 |
| 12 | AFC Hornchurch | 17 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 27 | 24 |
| 13 | Kidderminster | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 22 |
| 14 | Woking | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 24 | 21 |
| 15 | Aldershot | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 21 | 21 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 24 | 19 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 30 | 19 |
| 18 | Eastleigh | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 27 | 19 |
| 19 | Boston Utd | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 18 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 34 | 17 |
| 21 | Hartlepool | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 28 | 16 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 40 | 16 |
| 23 | Scunthorpe | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 11 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 16 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 37 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tamworth | Eastleigh |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Hornchurch | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Woking | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Barrow | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Sutton Utd | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Southend | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Harrogate Town | 1-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Tamworth (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tamworth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | AFC Hornchurch England National League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 31/10 | Woking England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 27/10 | Scunthorpe England National League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Barrow England National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Hartlepool England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/09 | Sutton Utd England National League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Aldershot England National League |
0-4 | 1-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Wealdstone England National League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 15/09 | Southend England National League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 12/09 | Harrogate Town England National League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
Eastleigh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | AFC Fylde England National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/10 | Barrow England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 28/10 | Forest Green England National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | Boston Utd England National League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | AFC Hornchurch England National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 03/10 | Woking England National League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/09 | Southend England National League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Harrogate Town England National League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Carlisle England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 15/09 | Sutton Utd England National League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tamworth vs Eastleigh?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tamworth win (48%). Probabilities: Tamworth 48%, draw 25%, Eastleigh 27%.
How many goals are expected in Tamworth vs Eastleigh?
The model expects 3.09 goals (Tamworth 1.78 · Eastleigh 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Tamworth vs Eastleigh?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.