Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 22/11, 11:30

Prediction: Erzurumspor FK vs Goztepe

Team pages: Erzurumspor FK · Goztepe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Erzurumspor FK1.31

Goztepe1.4

1X2

34% 28% 38%

Erzurumspor FK Draw Goztepe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Erzurumspor FK 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLWDWWLL

Goztepe 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWWWWL

Head-to-head

Erzurumspor FK 1–1–4 Goztepe (6 last)

Erzurumspor FK0-1Goztepe
Goztepe3-0Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK3-2Goztepe
Erzurumspor FK0-1Goztepe
Goztepe1-1Erzurumspor FK
Goztepe3-1Erzurumspor FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Erzurumspor FK 1487 · Goztepe 1511

	Erzurumspor FK	Draw	Goztepe
Our model	34%	28%	38%
Market	34%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Goztepe: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Erzurumspor FK	Goztepe
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.3	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.25

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 3.04 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.30
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:59 +12’	2.75	3.25	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +5’	3.04	3.30	2.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Erzurumspor FK 1–1–4 Goztepe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/01/25 Türkiye Cup	Erzurumspor FK	0-1 HT 0-1	Goztepe
08/04/24 Türkiye 1 Lig	Goztepe	3-0 HT 1-0	Erzurumspor FK
12/11/23 Türkiye 1 Lig	Erzurumspor FK	3-2 HT 2-1	Goztepe
21/01/23 Türkiye 1 Lig	Erzurumspor FK	0-1 HT 0-1	Goztepe
21/08/22 Türkiye 1 Lig	Goztepe	1-1 HT 1-0	Erzurumspor FK
08/03/21 Türkiye Super Lig	Goztepe	3-1 HT 1-0	Erzurumspor FK

Standings · Türkiye Super Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	27	15	28
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	26	8	25
3	Amedspor	11	7	2	2	28	15	23
4	Besiktas	11	7	1	3	23	12	22
5	Kasimpasa	11	5	5	1	17	11	20
6	Fenerbahce	11	6	1	4	29	10	19
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	13	9	19
8	Istanbul Basaksehir	11	5	2	4	19	17	17
9	Corum Belediyespor	11	5	1	5	21	21	16
10	Goztepe	11	4	3	4	22	19	15
11	Caykur Rizespor	11	4	2	5	13	16	14
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	9	18	12
14	Genclerbirligi	11	3	2	6	12	21	11
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	6	14	8
16	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	9	19	8
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	11	26	7
18	Eyupspor	11	1	0	10	3	30	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Erzurumspor FK	Goztepe
Caykur Rizespor	1-2 L	2-2 D
Corum Belediyespor	1-3 L	2-0 W
Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	3-1 W	2-4 L
Eyupspor	2-0 W	4-0 W
Alanyaspor	0-0 D	2-2 D
Genclerbirligi	1-1 D	0-1 L
Galatasaray	0-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Goztepe (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Erzurumspor FK

LDWLWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
31/10	Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	1-3	8	3	L
24/10	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	3-1	2	2	W
17/10	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
10/10	Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
20/09	Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/09	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	0-3	1	3	L
05/09	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
28/08	Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
21/08	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	0-3	0-4	2	1	L

Goztepe

LLLDDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
31/10	Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
25/10	Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
18/10	Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
12/10	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	4-0	7	5	W
20/09	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
12/09	Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
07/09	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	0-4	2-4	8	6	L
29/08	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	2-3	2	4	L
23/08	Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-1	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Erzurumspor FK vs Goztepe?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Goztepe win (38%). Probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 34%, draw 28%, Goztepe 38%.

How many goals are expected in Erzurumspor FK vs Goztepe?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Erzurumspor FK 1.31 · Goztepe 1.4), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Goztepe?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.