Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 21/11, 14:00
Prediction: Galatasaray vs Samsunspor
Team pages: Galatasaray · Samsunspor
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.94Total
Galatasaray2.97
Samsunspor0.97
1X2
Galatasaray
Draw
Samsunspor
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-0 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Galatasaray
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Samsunspor
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Galatasaray
5–1
Samsunspor
(6 last)
- Samsunspor4-1Galatasaray
- Galatasaray3-2Samsunspor
- Samsunspor0-2Galatasaray
- Galatasaray3-2Samsunspor
- Samsunspor0-2Galatasaray
- Galatasaray4-2Samsunspor
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Galatasaray 1608 · Samsunspor 1425
| Galatasaray | Draw | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 78% | 14% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Galatasaray (rating 1608 vs 1425).
- H2H favours Galatasaray: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Galatasaray | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 30/0/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 7.4 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Galatasaray 5–0–1 Samsunspor
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Türkiye Super Lig | Samsunspor | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Galatasaray |
| 05/12/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Galatasaray | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Samsunspor |
| 11/04/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Samsunspor | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Galatasaray |
| 10/11/24 Türkiye Super Lig | Galatasaray | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Samsunspor |
| 02/02/24 Türkiye Super Lig | Samsunspor | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Galatasaray |
| 16/09/23 Türkiye Super Lig | Galatasaray | 4-2 HT 3-0 | Samsunspor |
Standings · Türkiye Super Lig
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Trabzonspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 | Amedspor | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 15 | 23 |
| 4 | Besiktas | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 22 |
| 5 | Kasimpasa | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 20 |
| 6 | Fenerbahce | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 10 | 19 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 17 |
| 9 | Corum Belediyespor | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 16 |
| 10 | Goztepe | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 15 |
| 11 | Caykur Rizespor | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 14 |
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 12 |
| 14 | Genclerbirligi | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 11 |
| 15 | Konyaspor | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 8 |
| 16 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 8 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 7 |
| 18 | Eyupspor | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 30 | 3 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Amedspor | 4-3 W | 1-2 L |
| Konyaspor | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Fenerbahce | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Kasimpasa | 3-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Trabzonspor | 0-4 L | 0-3 L |
| Kocaelispor | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | 3-2 W | 2-5 L |
| Erzurumspor FK | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Galatasaray (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Galatasaray
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 30/10 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 26/10 | Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 17/10 | Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 09/10 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 1-0 | 16 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Erzurumspor FK Türkiye Super Lig |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
Samsunspor
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 01/11 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
1-3 | 2-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/10 | Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 18/10 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
1-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-3 | 0-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Erzurumspor FK Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Galatasaray win (77%). Probabilities: Galatasaray 77%, draw 14%, Samsunspor 8%.
How many goals are expected in Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
The model expects 3.94 goals (Galatasaray 2.97 · Samsunspor 0.97), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.