Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 21/11, 17:00

Prediction: Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahce

Team pages: Kocaelispor · Fenerbahce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Kocaelispor0.84

Fenerbahce1.8

1X2

16% 24% 60%

Kocaelispor Draw Fenerbahce

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Kocaelispor 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Fenerbahce 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Kocaelispor 0–2 Fenerbahce (2 last)

Kocaelispor0-2Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce3-1Kocaelispor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kocaelispor 1535 · Fenerbahce 1570

	Kocaelispor	Draw	Fenerbahce
Our model	16%	25%	59%
Market	17%	23%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fenerbahce: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kocaelispor	Fenerbahce
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.7	2.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	1.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.00

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.38 ★
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +10’	5.50	4.00	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +5’	5.75	4.38	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kocaelispor 0–0–2 Fenerbahce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/02/26 Türkiye Super Lig	Kocaelispor	0-2 HT 0-1	Fenerbahce
23/08/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Fenerbahce	3-1 HT 1-1	Kocaelispor

Standings · Türkiye Super Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	27	15	28
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	26	8	25
3	Amedspor	11	7	2	2	28	15	23
4	Besiktas	11	7	1	3	23	12	22
5	Kasimpasa	11	5	5	1	17	11	20
6	Fenerbahce	11	6	1	4	29	10	19
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	13	9	19
8	Istanbul Basaksehir	11	5	2	4	19	17	17
9	Corum Belediyespor	11	5	1	5	21	21	16
10	Goztepe	11	4	3	4	22	19	15
11	Caykur Rizespor	11	4	2	5	13	16	14
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	9	18	12
14	Genclerbirligi	11	3	2	6	12	21	11
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	6	14	8
16	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	9	19	8
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	11	26	7
18	Eyupspor	11	1	0	10	3	30	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kocaelispor	Fenerbahce
Eyupspor	2-0 W	8-0 W
Caykur Rizespor	0-0 D	3-0 W
Alanyaspor	2-1 W	3-0 W
Goztepe	1-2 L	1-2 L
Besiktas	1-2 L	1-2 L
Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	2-0 W	0-0 D
Galatasaray	0-1 L	1-2 L
Samsunspor	1-0 W	2-0 W
Konyaspor	2-1 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fenerbahce (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kocaelispor

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
31/10	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
23/10	Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	2-1	7	6	W
18/10	Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
11/10	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
19/09	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
13/09	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
06/09	Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
29/08	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
24/08	Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-0	3	2	W

Fenerbahce

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	5-0	1	2	W
31/10	Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-2	5	6	L
26/10	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	1-2	4	7	L
17/10	Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
10/10	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	3-0	5	0	W
20/09	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	5-0	8-0	8	2	W
14/09	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
05/09	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
30/08	Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
22/08	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	3-1	4-2	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahce?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fenerbahce win (60%). Probabilities: Kocaelispor 16%, draw 24%, Fenerbahce 60%.

How many goals are expected in Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahce?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Kocaelispor 0.84 · Fenerbahce 1.8), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahce?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.