Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 22/11, 14:00

Prediction: Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor

Team pages: Kasimpasa · Alanyaspor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Kasimpasa1.53

Alanyaspor1.08

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Kasimpasa Draw Alanyaspor

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Kasimpasa 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLWWDW

Alanyaspor 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Kasimpasa 5–1–0 Alanyaspor (6 last)

Kasimpasa1-0Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor1-2Kasimpasa
Kasimpasa2-1Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor1-2Kasimpasa
Kasimpasa2-1Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor3-3Kasimpasa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kasimpasa 1576 · Alanyaspor 1462

	Kasimpasa	Draw	Alanyaspor
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	47%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kasimpasa (rating 1576 vs 1462).
H2H favours Kasimpasa: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kasimpasa	Alanyaspor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.03
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.71 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +3’	1.95	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +7’	2.03	3.48	3.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kasimpasa 5–1–0 Alanyaspor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Türkiye Super Lig	Kasimpasa	1-0 HT 0-0	Alanyaspor
23/11/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Alanyaspor	1-2 HT 1-0	Kasimpasa
15/03/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Kasimpasa	2-1 HT 2-1	Alanyaspor
20/10/24 Türkiye Super Lig	Alanyaspor	1-2 HT 0-2	Kasimpasa
04/02/24 Türkiye Super Lig	Kasimpasa	2-1 HT 1-1	Alanyaspor
17/09/23 Türkiye Super Lig	Alanyaspor	3-3 HT 2-1	Kasimpasa

Standings · Türkiye Super Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	27	15	28
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	26	8	25
3	Amedspor	11	7	2	2	28	15	23
4	Besiktas	11	7	1	3	23	12	22
5	Kasimpasa	11	5	5	1	17	11	20
6	Fenerbahce	11	6	1	4	29	10	19
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	13	9	19
8	Istanbul Basaksehir	11	5	2	4	19	17	17
9	Corum Belediyespor	11	5	1	5	21	21	16
10	Goztepe	11	4	3	4	22	19	15
11	Caykur Rizespor	11	4	2	5	13	16	14
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	9	18	12
14	Genclerbirligi	11	3	2	6	12	21	11
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	6	14	8
16	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	9	19	8
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	11	26	7
18	Eyupspor	11	1	0	10	3	30	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kasimpasa	Alanyaspor
Besiktas	2-2 D	1-0 W
Eyupspor	1-0 W	1-2 L
Genclerbirligi	2-1 W	0-5 L
Corum Belediyespor	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kasimpasa (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kasimpasa

WDDWDLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
01/11	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	2-2	5	2	D
24/10	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
18/10	Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig	2-1	4-1	8	3	W
09/10	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	1-3	1	7	L
18/09	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
13/09	Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	2-1	9	6	W
06/09	Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-2	2	7	D
30/08	Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-0	0	3	W

Alanyaspor

WLWDWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
02/11	Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
23/10	Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	1-2	7	6	L
17/10	Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
10/10	Erzurumspor FK Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
19/09	Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
12/09	Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
07/09	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
30/08	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
23/08	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	1-0	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kasimpasa win (47%). Probabilities: Kasimpasa 47%, draw 27%, Alanyaspor 26%.

How many goals are expected in Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Kasimpasa 1.53 · Alanyaspor 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.