Football · Germany 3. Liga · 20/11, 19:00

Prediction: TSV Havelse vs FC Viktoria Köln

Team pages: TSV Havelse · FC Viktoria Köln

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

TSV Havelse1.33

FC Viktoria Köln2.49

1X2

18% 20% 62%

TSV Havelse Draw FC Viktoria Köln

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

TSV Havelse 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLLDDWDL

FC Viktoria Köln 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDDWWW

Head-to-head

TSV Havelse 2–1–1 FC Viktoria Köln (4 last)

TSV Havelse3-2FC Viktoria Köln
FC Viktoria Köln4-1TSV Havelse
FC Viktoria Köln0-0TSV Havelse
TSV Havelse1-0FC Viktoria Köln

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TSV Havelse 1434 · FC Viktoria Köln 1574

	TSV Havelse	Draw	FC Viktoria Köln
Our model	18%	20%	62%
Market	18%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Viktoria Köln (rating 1434 vs 1574).
H2H favours TSV Havelse: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TSV Havelse	FC Viktoria Köln
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.3	2.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.7	1.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.33

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.08
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.87 ★
2	1.44 → 1.44	Pinn 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:20 +3’	5.00	4.33	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +13’	5.08	4.87	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TSV Havelse 2–1–1 FC Viktoria Köln

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Germany 3. Liga	TSV Havelse	3-2 HT 0-2	FC Viktoria Köln
04/10/25 Germany 3. Liga	FC Viktoria Köln	4-1 HT 2-0	TSV Havelse
25/02/22 Germany 3. Liga	FC Viktoria Köln	0-0 HT 0-0	TSV Havelse
17/09/21 Germany 3. Liga	TSV Havelse	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Viktoria Köln

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoria Köln	13	9	2	2	36	18	29
2	MSV Duisburg	13	9	2	2	33	18	29
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	13	8	3	2	21	13	27
4	Wehen SV	13	6	3	4	26	17	21
5	FC Ingolstadt	13	6	3	4	19	19	21
6	Saarbrucken	13	6	2	5	31	26	20
7	Alemannia Aachen	13	6	2	5	19	19	20
8	Waldhof Mannheim	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
9	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	13	6	1	6	22	20	19
10	Hansa Rostock	13	5	4	4	22	22	19
11	SV Meppen	13	5	3	5	18	18	18
12	VfB Stuttgart II	13	5	3	5	22	23	18
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
14	SC Preussen Munster	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
15	Wurzburger Kickers	13	4	2	7	17	25	14
16	Jahn Regensburg	13	3	4	6	23	23	13
17	Verl	13	3	3	7	17	27	12
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	13	3	3	7	13	29	12
19	SC Fortuna Köln	13	2	4	7	10	16	10
20	TSV Havelse	13	2	4	7	17	29	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TSV Havelse	FC Viktoria Köln
FC Ingolstadt	1-1 D	3-0 W
Saarbrucken	3-2 W	5-3 W
SV Meppen	1-1 D	3-1 W
MSV Duisburg	1-2 L	1-1 D
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	2-2 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Viktoria Köln (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TSV Havelse

LDLLLDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
31/10	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	10	4	D
25/10	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
18/10	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
13/10	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	2-0	2-2	3	8	D
10/10	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
25/09	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
15/09	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
12/09	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	1-2	2-2	3	8	D
05/09	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	2	3	L

FC Viktoria Köln

LWWWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	3-0	5-3	4	6	W
31/10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/10	Verl Germany 3. Liga	0-1	3-1	6	4	W
18/10	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
14/10	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	2-0	2-2	7	5	D
11/10	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	4-1	5-2	4	3	W
19/09	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	0-0	3-0	7	5	W
15/09	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	1-0	3-1	2	8	W
11/09	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	2-0	4-0	7	6	W
05/09	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TSV Havelse vs FC Viktoria Köln?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Viktoria Köln win (62%). Probabilities: TSV Havelse 18%, draw 20%, FC Viktoria Köln 62%.

How many goals are expected in TSV Havelse vs FC Viktoria Köln?

The model expects 3.82 goals (TSV Havelse 1.33 · FC Viktoria Köln 2.49), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in TSV Havelse vs FC Viktoria Köln?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.