Football · Germany 3. Liga · 21/11, 14:00

Prediction: SC Fortuna Köln vs SV Meppen

Team pages: SC Fortuna Köln · SV Meppen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

SC Fortuna Köln1.3

SV Meppen1.22

1X2

38% 28% 34%

SC Fortuna Köln Draw SV Meppen

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Fortuna Köln 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLLLLL

SV Meppen 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWDWDW

Head-to-head

SC Fortuna Köln 0–2–3 SV Meppen (5 last)

SV Meppen1-1SC Fortuna Köln
SC Fortuna Köln1-1SV Meppen
SV Meppen3-0SC Fortuna Köln
SC Fortuna Köln0-2SV Meppen
SV Meppen1-0SC Fortuna Köln

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Fortuna Köln 1438 · SV Meppen 1480

	SC Fortuna Köln	Draw	SV Meppen
Our model	37%	29%	33%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SV Meppen (rating 1438 vs 1480).
H2H favours SV Meppen: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Fortuna Köln	SV Meppen
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.57
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.75 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +5’	2.30	3.40	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +8’	2.40	3.57	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Fortuna Köln 0–2–3 SV Meppen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/23 Europe Friendlies	SV Meppen	1-1 HT 1-1	SC Fortuna Köln
06/05/19 Germany 3. Liga	SC Fortuna Köln	1-1 HT 1-0	SV Meppen
02/12/18 Germany 3. Liga	SV Meppen	3-0 HT 2-0	SC Fortuna Köln
31/03/18 Germany 3. Liga	SC Fortuna Köln	0-2 HT 0-1	SV Meppen
21/10/17 Germany 3. Liga	SV Meppen	1-0 HT 0-0	SC Fortuna Köln

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoria Köln	13	9	2	2	36	18	29
2	MSV Duisburg	13	9	2	2	33	18	29
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	13	8	3	2	21	13	27
4	Wehen SV	13	6	3	4	26	17	21
5	FC Ingolstadt	13	6	3	4	19	19	21
6	Saarbrucken	13	6	2	5	31	26	20
7	Alemannia Aachen	13	6	2	5	19	19	20
8	Waldhof Mannheim	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
9	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	13	6	1	6	22	20	19
10	Hansa Rostock	13	5	4	4	22	22	19
11	SV Meppen	13	5	3	5	18	18	18
12	VfB Stuttgart II	13	5	3	5	22	23	18
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
14	SC Preussen Munster	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
15	Wurzburger Kickers	13	4	2	7	17	25	14
16	Jahn Regensburg	13	3	4	6	23	23	13
17	Verl	13	3	3	7	17	27	12
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	13	3	3	7	13	29	12
19	SC Fortuna Köln	13	2	4	7	10	16	10
20	TSV Havelse	13	2	4	7	17	29	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Fortuna Köln	SV Meppen
Wurzburger Kickers	1-2 L	4-0 W
VfB Stuttgart II	0-1 L	1-1 D
Saarbrucken	0-0 D	1-6 L
TSV Havelse	3-1 W	1-1 D
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	2-2 D	0-1 L
Fortuna Dusseldorf	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SC Fortuna Köln (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Fortuna Köln

DDLWDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
31/10	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
25/10	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
16/10	VfB Stuttgart II Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
13/10	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
10/10	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
25/09	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	1-0	3-1	1	4	W
16/09	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	0-2	0-2	9	7	L
13/09	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
06/09	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

SV Meppen

LLLLDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
30/10	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
24/10	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
18/10	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
13/10	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
10/10	VfB Stuttgart II Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
19/09	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
15/09	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-3	6	8	L
12/09	Verl Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-2	6	5	L
05/09	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	1-3	1-6	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Fortuna Köln vs SV Meppen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Fortuna Köln win (38%). Probabilities: SC Fortuna Köln 38%, draw 28%, SV Meppen 34%.

How many goals are expected in SC Fortuna Köln vs SV Meppen?

The model expects 2.52 goals (SC Fortuna Köln 1.3 · SV Meppen 1.22), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Fortuna Köln vs SV Meppen?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.