Football · Germany 3. Liga · 21/11, 14:00

Prediction: Verl vs Rot-Weiss Essen

Team pages: Verl · Rot-Weiss Essen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Verl1.02

Rot-Weiss Essen1.68

1X2

23% 25% 53%

Verl Draw Rot-Weiss Essen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Verl 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Rot-Weiss Essen 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Verl 3–2–1 Rot-Weiss Essen (6 last)

Rot-Weiss Essen1-0Verl
Verl0-0Rot-Weiss Essen
Verl3-0Rot-Weiss Essen
Rot-Weiss Essen1-3Verl
Verl1-1Rot-Weiss Essen
Rot-Weiss Essen0-5Verl

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Verl 1449 · Rot-Weiss Essen 1556

	Verl	Draw	Rot-Weiss Essen
Our model	22%	26%	52%
Market	24%	23%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rot-Weiss Essen (rating 1449 vs 1556).
H2H favours Verl: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Verl	Rot-Weiss Essen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6	2.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.90

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.50 ★
2	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.76

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:58 +22’	3.80	3.90	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +8’	3.65	4.50	1.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Verl 3–2–1 Rot-Weiss Essen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Germany 3. Liga	Rot-Weiss Essen	1-0 HT 0-0	Verl
13/12/25 Germany 3. Liga	Verl	0-0 HT 0-0	Rot-Weiss Essen
28/03/25 Germany 3. Liga	Verl	3-0 HT 2-0	Rot-Weiss Essen
23/10/24 Germany 3. Liga	Rot-Weiss Essen	1-3 HT 0-0	Verl
10/03/24 Germany 3. Liga	Verl	1-1 HT 0-0	Rot-Weiss Essen
07/10/23 Germany 3. Liga	Rot-Weiss Essen	0-5 HT 0-1	Verl

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoria Köln	13	9	2	2	36	18	29
2	MSV Duisburg	13	9	2	2	33	18	29
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	13	8	3	2	21	13	27
4	Wehen SV	13	6	3	4	26	17	21
5	FC Ingolstadt	13	6	3	4	19	19	21
6	Saarbrucken	13	6	2	5	31	26	20
7	Alemannia Aachen	13	6	2	5	19	19	20
8	Waldhof Mannheim	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
9	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	13	6	1	6	22	20	19
10	Hansa Rostock	13	5	4	4	22	22	19
11	SV Meppen	13	5	3	5	18	18	18
12	VfB Stuttgart II	13	5	3	5	22	23	18
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
14	SC Preussen Munster	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
15	Wurzburger Kickers	13	4	2	7	17	25	14
16	Jahn Regensburg	13	3	4	6	23	23	13
17	Verl	13	3	3	7	17	27	12
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	13	3	3	7	13	29	12
19	SC Fortuna Köln	13	2	4	7	10	16	10
20	TSV Havelse	13	2	4	7	17	29	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Verl	Rot-Weiss Essen
FC Viktoria Köln	1-3 L	1-0 W
Jahn Regensburg	2-2 D	1-0 W
Wurzburger Kickers	2-1 W	6-2 W
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1-1 D	1-0 W
Waldhof Mannheim	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Rot-Weiss Essen (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Verl

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	VfB Stuttgart II Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
31/10	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-4	10	4	L
24/10	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
18/10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
14/10	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	0-2	2-2	8	2	D
11/10	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
18/09	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	2-0	2-1	8	2	W
15/09	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
12/09	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
05/09	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	6	W

Rot-Weiss Essen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
01/11	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
23/10	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
17/10	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
13/10	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
09/10	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	0-2	3-3	4	5	D
20/09	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
16/09	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
12/09	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	3-0	6-2	6	6	W
05/09	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Verl vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rot-Weiss Essen win (53%). Probabilities: Verl 23%, draw 25%, Rot-Weiss Essen 53%.

How many goals are expected in Verl vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Verl 1.02 · Rot-Weiss Essen 1.68), with a 59% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Verl vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.