Football · Germany 3. Liga · 21/11, 14:00

Prediction: Jahn Regensburg vs Wurzburger Kickers

Team pages: Jahn Regensburg · Wurzburger Kickers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Jahn Regensburg2.1

Wurzburger Kickers1.3

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Jahn Regensburg Draw Wurzburger Kickers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Jahn Regensburg 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Wurzburger Kickers 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Jahn Regensburg 2–1–0 Wurzburger Kickers (3 last)

Wurzburger Kickers1-1Jahn Regensburg
Jahn Regensburg2-1Wurzburger Kickers
Wurzburger Kickers1-3Jahn Regensburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jahn Regensburg 1483 · Wurzburger Kickers 1449

	Jahn Regensburg	Draw	Wurzburger Kickers
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jahn Regensburg: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jahn Regensburg	Wurzburger Kickers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.4	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.4	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.70

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.66
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.18 ★
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:10 +10’	1.65	3.70	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +8’	1.66	4.18	4.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jahn Regensburg 2–1–0 Wurzburger Kickers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/21 Germany Bundesliga II	Wurzburger Kickers	1-1 HT 1-0	Jahn Regensburg
28/11/20 Germany Bundesliga II	Jahn Regensburg	2-1 HT 0-0	Wurzburger Kickers
11/11/16 Europe Friendlies	Wurzburger Kickers	1-3 HT 0-2	Jahn Regensburg

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoria Köln	13	9	2	2	36	18	29
2	MSV Duisburg	13	9	2	2	33	18	29
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	13	8	3	2	21	13	27
4	Wehen SV	13	6	3	4	26	17	21
5	FC Ingolstadt	13	6	3	4	19	19	21
6	Saarbrucken	13	6	2	5	31	26	20
7	Alemannia Aachen	13	6	2	5	19	19	20
8	Waldhof Mannheim	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
9	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	13	6	1	6	22	20	19
10	Hansa Rostock	13	5	4	4	22	22	19
11	SV Meppen	13	5	3	5	18	18	18
12	VfB Stuttgart II	13	5	3	5	22	23	18
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
14	SC Preussen Munster	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
15	Wurzburger Kickers	13	4	2	7	17	25	14
16	Jahn Regensburg	13	3	4	6	23	23	13
17	Verl	13	3	3	7	17	27	12
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	13	3	3	7	13	29	12
19	SC Fortuna Köln	13	2	4	7	10	16	10
20	TSV Havelse	13	2	4	7	17	29	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jahn Regensburg	Wurzburger Kickers
SV Meppen	1-2 L	0-4 L
Hansa Rostock	2-1 W	0-2 L
Rot-Weiss Essen	0-1 L	2-6 L
Verl	2-2 D	1-2 L
TSV Havelse	5-0 W	2-2 D
VfB Stuttgart II	3-3 D	1-2 L
Alemannia Aachen	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Jahn Regensburg (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jahn Regensburg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
31/10	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	3	11	W
23/10	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
17/10	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
14/10	Verl Germany 3. Liga	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
10/10	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
19/09	VfB Stuttgart II Germany 3. Liga	3-2	3-3	4	5	D
15/09	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	9	5	L
12/09	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	1-2	2-2	3	8	D
05/09	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-2	6	9	L

Wurzburger Kickers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
31/10	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
24/10	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
17/10	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	8	6	W
13/10	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	0-2	2-2	7	8	D
10/10	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-2	1	6	L
18/09	Verl Germany 3. Liga	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
15/09	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
12/09	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	0-3	2-6	5	6	L
06/09	VfB Stuttgart II Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	6	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jahn Regensburg vs Wurzburger Kickers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jahn Regensburg win (54%). Probabilities: Jahn Regensburg 54%, draw 24%, Wurzburger Kickers 22%.

How many goals are expected in Jahn Regensburg vs Wurzburger Kickers?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Jahn Regensburg 2.1 · Wurzburger Kickers 1.3), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Jahn Regensburg vs Wurzburger Kickers?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.