Football · Germany 3. Liga · 22/11, 13:30

Prediction: VfB Stuttgart II vs FC Ingolstadt

Team pages: VfB Stuttgart II · FC Ingolstadt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

VfB Stuttgart II1.53

FC Ingolstadt1.76

1X2

33% 25% 42%

VfB Stuttgart II Draw FC Ingolstadt

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

VfB Stuttgart II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDDWWLDW

FC Ingolstadt 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWWDW

Head-to-head

VfB Stuttgart II 2–1–2 FC Ingolstadt (5 last)

FC Ingolstadt2-1VfB Stuttgart II
VfB Stuttgart II2-1FC Ingolstadt
FC Ingolstadt1-1VfB Stuttgart II
VfB Stuttgart II3-2FC Ingolstadt
FC Ingolstadt3-1VfB Stuttgart II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VfB Stuttgart II 1502 · FC Ingolstadt 1515

	VfB Stuttgart II	Draw	FC Ingolstadt
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	33%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VfB Stuttgart II	FC Ingolstadt
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.60

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.07 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.19

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +2’	2.70	3.60	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +6’	3.07	3.60	2.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VfB Stuttgart II 2–1–2 FC Ingolstadt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Germany 3. Liga	FC Ingolstadt	2-1 HT 1-1	VfB Stuttgart II
10/08/25 Germany 3. Liga	VfB Stuttgart II	2-1 HT 2-0	FC Ingolstadt
15/02/25 Germany 3. Liga	FC Ingolstadt	1-1 HT 1-0	VfB Stuttgart II
14/09/24 Germany 3. Liga	VfB Stuttgart II	3-2 HT 3-1	FC Ingolstadt
05/07/14 Club Friendly List	FC Ingolstadt	3-1 HT 3-1	VfB Stuttgart II

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoria Köln	13	9	2	2	36	18	29
2	MSV Duisburg	13	9	2	2	33	18	29
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	13	8	3	2	21	13	27
4	Wehen SV	13	6	3	4	26	17	21
5	FC Ingolstadt	13	6	3	4	19	19	21
6	Saarbrucken	13	6	2	5	31	26	20
7	Alemannia Aachen	13	6	2	5	19	19	20
8	Waldhof Mannheim	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
9	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	13	6	1	6	22	20	19
10	Hansa Rostock	13	5	4	4	22	22	19
11	SV Meppen	13	5	3	5	18	18	18
12	VfB Stuttgart II	13	5	3	5	22	23	18
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
14	SC Preussen Munster	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
15	Wurzburger Kickers	13	4	2	7	17	25	14
16	Jahn Regensburg	13	3	4	6	23	23	13
17	Verl	13	3	3	7	17	27	12
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	13	3	3	7	13	29	12
19	SC Fortuna Köln	13	2	4	7	10	16	10
20	TSV Havelse	13	2	4	7	17	29	10

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VfB Stuttgart II	FC Ingolstadt
MSV Duisburg	3-3 D	2-1 W
Alemannia Aachen	1-2 L	0-3 L
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	3-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: VfB Stuttgart II (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VfB Stuttgart II

WLLDDWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Verl Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
31/10	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	1-3	3-3	3	8	D
24/10	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	10	6	L
16/10	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
13/10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	2-1	3-2	2	7	W
10/10	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
19/09	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	2-3	3-3	1	5	D
16/09	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-3	4	2	L
13/09	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
06/09	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	4	9	W

FC Ingolstadt

LWLLLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	1-2	3-2	6	4	W
31/10	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
24/10	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/10	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
14/10	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	0-0	3-0	7	4	W
11/10	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-4	9	5	L
19/09	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-3	5	5	L
16/09	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
12/09	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
04/09	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	0-3	0-3	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VfB Stuttgart II vs FC Ingolstadt?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Ingolstadt win (42%). Probabilities: VfB Stuttgart II 33%, draw 25%, FC Ingolstadt 42%.

How many goals are expected in VfB Stuttgart II vs FC Ingolstadt?

The model expects 3.29 goals (VfB Stuttgart II 1.53 · FC Ingolstadt 1.76), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart II vs FC Ingolstadt?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.