Football · Tanzania Premier League Play-Offs · 16/07, 15:00
Prediction: Tanzania Prisons vs Polisi Tanzania FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Tanzania Prisons1.27
Polisi Tanzania FC1.17
1X2
Tanzania Prisons
Draw
Polisi Tanzania FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tanzania Prisons
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Polisi Tanzania FC
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tanzania Prisons
2–4
Polisi Tanzania FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tanzania Prisons 1514 · Polisi Tanzania FC 1598
| Tanzania Prisons | Draw | Polisi Tanzania FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 37% | 30% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polisi Tanzania FC (rating 1514 vs 1598).
- H2H favours Polisi Tanzania FC: 4-0-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tanzania Prisons | Polisi Tanzania FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.5 | 2.3 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 67/22/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.9 | – / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 1.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tanzania Prisons 2–0–4 Polisi Tanzania FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 Tanzania Premier League Play-Offs | Polisi Tanzania FC | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Tanzania Prisons |
| 19/02/23 Tanzania Premier League | Polisi Tanzania FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tanzania Prisons |
| 25/10/22 Tanzania Premier League | Tanzania Prisons | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Polisi Tanzania FC |
| 01/05/22 Tanzania Premier League | Tanzania Prisons | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Polisi Tanzania FC |
| 15/02/22 Tanzania Cup | Tanzania Prisons | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Polisi Tanzania FC |
| 04/12/21 Tanzania Premier League | Polisi Tanzania FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tanzania Prisons |
Standings · Tanzania Premier League Play-Offs
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 9 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba Sports Club | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 54 | 11 | 73 |
| 3 | Azam FC | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 46 | 12 | 64 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 47 | 35 | 50 |
| 5 | TRA United | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 28 | 43 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 30 | 33 | 42 |
| 7 | Pamba SC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 32 | 35 | 36 |
| 8 | Coastal Union | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31 | 37 | 36 |
| 9 | Dodoma Jiji FC | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 36 | 35 |
| 10 | Namungo FC | 30 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 25 | 32 | 34 |
| 11 | Mashujaa FC | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 27 | 33 |
| 12 | Singida Fountain Gate FC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 44 | 33 |
| 13 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 23 | 41 | 32 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 24 | 41 | 30 |
| 15 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 25 | 48 | 27 |
| 16 | KMC FC | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 53 | 9 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tanzania Prisons
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Polisi Tanzania FC Tanzania Premier League Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 08/07 | Mbeya City Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 05/07 | Mbeya City Tanzania Premier League Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 30/06 | Mashujaa FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Mtibwa Sugar Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 18/06 | JKT Tanzania Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 14/06 | Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/05 | Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Azam FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
Polisi Tanzania FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Premier League Play-Offs |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | Mbeya Kwanza FC Tanzania Play-Offs |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | Mbeya Kwanza FC Tanzania Play-Offs |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Gunners FC Tanzania First Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Mbeya Kwanza FC Tanzania First Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Mbuni FC Tanzania First Division |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | TMA FC Tanzania First Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | African S.C. Tanzania First Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 18/05 | Ken Gold FC Tanzania First Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Songea United Tanzania First Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tanzania Prisons vs Polisi Tanzania FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tanzania Prisons win (37%). Probabilities: Tanzania Prisons 37%, draw 30%, Polisi Tanzania FC 33%.
How many goals are expected in Tanzania Prisons vs Polisi Tanzania FC?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Tanzania Prisons 1.27 · Polisi Tanzania FC 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tanzania Prisons vs Polisi Tanzania FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.