Football · Germany 3. Liga · 21/11, 14:00

Prediction: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Team pages: Fortuna Dusseldorf · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Fortuna Dusseldorf1.94

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1.2

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Fortuna Dusseldorf Draw SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLDWLDDL

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDDLLDWLLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fortuna Dusseldorf 1497 · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1436

	Fortuna Dusseldorf	Draw	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortuna Dusseldorf (rating 1497 vs 1436).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortuna Dusseldorf	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	1.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.70

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.71
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.14 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +17’	1.67	3.70	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +8’	1.71	4.14	4.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoria Köln	13	9	2	2	36	18	29
2	MSV Duisburg	13	9	2	2	33	18	29
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	13	8	3	2	21	13	27
4	Wehen SV	13	6	3	4	26	17	21
5	FC Ingolstadt	13	6	3	4	19	19	21
6	Saarbrucken	13	6	2	5	31	26	20
7	Alemannia Aachen	13	6	2	5	19	19	20
8	Waldhof Mannheim	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
9	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	13	6	1	6	22	20	19
10	Hansa Rostock	13	5	4	4	22	22	19
11	SV Meppen	13	5	3	5	18	18	18
12	VfB Stuttgart II	13	5	3	5	22	23	18
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
14	SC Preussen Munster	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
15	Wurzburger Kickers	13	4	2	7	17	25	14
16	Jahn Regensburg	13	3	4	6	23	23	13
17	Verl	13	3	3	7	17	27	12
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	13	3	3	7	13	29	12
19	SC Fortuna Köln	13	2	4	7	10	16	10
20	TSV Havelse	13	2	4	7	17	29	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortuna Dusseldorf	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Hansa Rostock	1-1 D	0-3 L
Saarbrucken	1-3 L	1-2 L
SC Preussen Munster	2-1 W	3-2 W
Verl	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fortuna Dusseldorf

DWWLDWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	2-1	2-3	6	4	L
30/10	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
24/10	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
17/10	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-3	8	3	L
14/10	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	7	8	W
11/10	Verl Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
19/09	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
15/09	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
12/09	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	1	3	W
06/09	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	8	2	D

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

WDDLLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-3	7	6	L
01/11	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
24/10	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	1-3	1-7	3	3	L
17/10	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	0-2	3-2	4	4	W
14/10	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-2	2-2	2	5	D
10/10	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	1-2	1-5	8	4	L
19/09	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
15/09	Verl Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
12/09	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	2-1	2-2	6	8	D
06/09	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortuna Dusseldorf win (54%). Probabilities: Fortuna Dusseldorf 54%, draw 24%, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 22%.

How many goals are expected in Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Fortuna Dusseldorf 1.94 · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.2), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.