Football · Japan Football League · 14/11, 05:00

Prediction: Vonds Ichihara vs J-Lease FC

Team pages: Vonds Ichihara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Vonds Ichihara1.07

J-Lease FC1.24

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Vonds Ichihara Draw J-Lease FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vonds Ichihara 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWDWLD

J-Lease FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWWLLD

Head-to-head

Vonds Ichihara 1–1–1 J-Lease FC (3 last)

Vonds Ichihara0-1J-Lease FC
Vonds Ichihara1-0J-Lease FC
Vonds Ichihara0-0J-Lease FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vonds Ichihara 1502 · J-Lease FC 1499

	Vonds Ichihara	Draw	J-Lease FC
Our model	30%	31%	39%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vonds Ichihara	J-Lease FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.3	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.1	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.25

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.61 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:27 +38’	2.80	3.25	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:54 +10’	2.46	3.24	2.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vonds Ichihara 1–1–1 J-Lease FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/11/25 Japan Regional League	Vonds Ichihara	0-1 HT 0-0	J-Lease FC
08/11/25 Japan Regional League	Vonds Ichihara	1-0 HT 0-0	J-Lease FC
22/11/24 Japan Regional League	Vonds Ichihara	0-0 HT 0-0	J-Lease FC

Standings · Japan Football League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criacao Shinjuku	11	7	2	2	12	8	23
2	Honda FC	11	6	2	3	12	11	20
3	Verspah Oita	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
3	Vonds Ichihara	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
5	Azul Claro Numazu	10	4	5	1	16	10	17
6	Okinawa SV	11	4	5	2	15	10	17
7	YSCC	11	5	2	4	20	20	17
8	Reinmeer Aomori	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
9	Briobecca Urayasu SC	11	5	1	5	16	16	16
10	Veertien Mie	11	4	3	4	16	14	15
11	Minebea Mitsumi	11	4	2	5	11	15	14
12	J-Lease FC	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
13	Grulla Morioka FC	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
14	FC Tiamo Hirakata	10	2	3	5	12	20	9
15	Yokogawa Musashino FC	11	2	2	7	16	17	8
16	Maruyasu Okazaki	11	2	1	8	12	20	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vonds Ichihara	J-Lease FC
YSCC	2-2 D	2-3 L
Minebea Mitsumi	0-1 L	3-0 W
Yokogawa Musashino FC	2-1 W	0-3 L
Okinawa SV	1-1 D	0-0 D
Azul Claro Numazu	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Tiamo Hirakata	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vonds Ichihara (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vonds Ichihara

LLWDWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	YSCC Japan Football League	1-1	2-2	7	0	D
31/10	Minebea Mitsumi Japan Football League	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
25/10	Yokogawa Musashino FC Japan Football League	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/10	Okinawa SV Japan Football League	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
10/10	Azul Claro Numazu Japan Football League	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
03/10	Grulla Morioka FC Japan Football League	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
26/09	FC Tiamo Hirakata Japan Football League	1-0	1-1	7	1	D
19/09	Maruyasu Okazaki Japan Football League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	Honda FC Japan Football League	0-2	1-2	6	1	L
05/09	Criacao Shinjuku Japan Football League	0-1	0-1	3	2	L

J-Lease FC

LLWDDWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Azul Claro Numazu Japan Football League	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
04/11	Yokogawa Musashino FC Japan Football League	0-2	0-3	7	2	L
01/11	YSCC Japan Football League	2-2	2-3	7	1	L
24/10	Veertien Mie Japan Football League	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
17/10	Minebea Mitsumi Japan Football League	1-0	3-0	2	0	W
10/10	Okinawa SV Japan Football League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
04/10	FC Tiamo Hirakata Japan Football League	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
26/09	Briobecca Urayasu SC Japan Football League	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
19/09	Verspah Oita Japan Football League	0-1	1-2	9	2	L
06/09	Reinmeer Aomori Japan Football League	0-0	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vonds Ichihara vs J-Lease FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an J-Lease FC win (40%). Probabilities: Vonds Ichihara 31%, draw 29%, J-Lease FC 40%.

How many goals are expected in Vonds Ichihara vs J-Lease FC?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Vonds Ichihara 1.07 · J-Lease FC 1.24), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vonds Ichihara vs J-Lease FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.