Football · Japan Football League · 15/11, 05:00

Prediction: FC Tiamo Hirakata vs Honda FC

Team pages: FC Tiamo Hirakata · Honda FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

FC Tiamo Hirakata1.22

Honda FC1.62

1X2

28% 26% 46%

FC Tiamo Hirakata Draw Honda FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tiamo Hirakata 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDLLDW

Honda FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDWDLW

Head-to-head

FC Tiamo Hirakata 0–3–3 Honda FC (6 last)

Honda FC2-2FC Tiamo Hirakata
Honda FC1-1FC Tiamo Hirakata
FC Tiamo Hirakata2-4Honda FC
Honda FC1-0FC Tiamo Hirakata
FC Tiamo Hirakata1-4Honda FC
Honda FC1-1FC Tiamo Hirakata

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tiamo Hirakata 1462 · Honda FC 1511

	FC Tiamo Hirakata	Draw	Honda FC
Our model	28%	27%	45%
Market	28%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Honda FC (rating 1462 vs 1511).
H2H favours Honda FC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tiamo Hirakata	Honda FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.3	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.8	3.7 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.50

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.17
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.60
2	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.98 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13.2% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:22 +51’	3.10	3.50	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:08 +3’	3.17	3.60	1.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tiamo Hirakata 0–3–3 Honda FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Japan JFL Cup	Honda FC	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Tiamo Hirakata
11/10/25 Japan Football League	Honda FC	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Tiamo Hirakata
23/03/25 Japan Football League	FC Tiamo Hirakata	2-4 HT 0-4	Honda FC
28/09/24 Japan Football League	Honda FC	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Tiamo Hirakata
05/11/23 Japan Football League	FC Tiamo Hirakata	1-4 HT 1-3	Honda FC
29/04/23 Japan Football League	Honda FC	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Tiamo Hirakata

Standings · Japan Football League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criacao Shinjuku	11	7	2	2	12	8	23
2	Honda FC	11	6	2	3	12	11	20
3	Verspah Oita	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
3	Vonds Ichihara	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
5	Azul Claro Numazu	10	4	5	1	16	10	17
6	Okinawa SV	11	4	5	2	15	10	17
7	YSCC	11	5	2	4	20	20	17
8	Reinmeer Aomori	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
9	Briobecca Urayasu SC	11	5	1	5	16	16	16
10	Veertien Mie	11	4	3	4	16	14	15
11	Minebea Mitsumi	11	4	2	5	11	15	14
12	J-Lease FC	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
13	Grulla Morioka FC	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
14	FC Tiamo Hirakata	10	2	3	5	12	20	9
15	Yokogawa Musashino FC	11	2	2	7	16	17	8
16	Maruyasu Okazaki	11	2	1	8	12	20	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tiamo Hirakata	Honda FC
Reinmeer Aomori	2-2 D	0-2 L
Grulla Morioka FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Vonds Ichihara	1-1 D	2-1 W
Okinawa SV	1-2 L	1-1 D
Veertien Mie	3-2 W	1-0 W
Maruyasu Okazaki	1-3 L	2-1 W
YSCC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Honda FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Tiamo Hirakata

LLWLDDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Criacao Shinjuku Japan Football League	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
01/11	Reinmeer Aomori Japan Football League	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
18/10	Grulla Morioka FC Japan Football League	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
11/10	Yokogawa Musashino FC Japan Football League	0-4	0-6	3	1	L
04/10	J-Lease FC Japan Football League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/09	Vonds Ichihara Japan Football League	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
21/09	Okinawa SV Japan Football League	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
12/09	Veertien Mie Japan Football League	2-1	3-2	2	6	W
05/09	Maruyasu Okazaki Japan Football League	0-3	1-3	7	6	L
30/08	YSCC Japan Football League	0-1	0-1	4	2	L

Honda FC

WWLWLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Verspah Oita Japan Football League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
31/10	Briobecca Urayasu SC Japan Football League	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
24/10	Okinawa SV Japan Football League	1-1	1-1	14	3	D
17/10	Maruyasu Okazaki Japan Football League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
11/10	Grulla Morioka FC Japan Football League	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
03/10	Minebea Mitsumi Japan Football League	0-1	0-1	8	0	L
27/09	YSCC Japan Football League	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
19/09	Reinmeer Aomori Japan Football League	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
12/09	Vonds Ichihara Japan Football League	2-0	2-1	6	1	W
05/09	Veertien Mie Japan Football League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tiamo Hirakata vs Honda FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Honda FC win (46%). Probabilities: FC Tiamo Hirakata 28%, draw 26%, Honda FC 46%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tiamo Hirakata vs Honda FC?

The model expects 2.84 goals (FC Tiamo Hirakata 1.22 · Honda FC 1.62), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tiamo Hirakata vs Honda FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.