Football · Japan Football League · 14/11, 05:00
Prediction: Maruyasu Okazaki vs Minebea Mitsumi
Team pages: Maruyasu Okazaki · Minebea Mitsumi
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Maruyasu Okazaki1.45
Minebea Mitsumi1.35
1X2
Maruyasu Okazaki
Draw
Minebea Mitsumi
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Maruyasu Okazaki
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Minebea Mitsumi
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Maruyasu Okazaki
4–2–0
Minebea Mitsumi
(6 last)
- Maruyasu Okazaki3-2Minebea Mitsumi
- Minebea Mitsumi1-1Maruyasu Okazaki
- Maruyasu Okazaki1-0Minebea Mitsumi
- Minebea Mitsumi2-3Maruyasu Okazaki
- Minebea Mitsumi0-0Maruyasu Okazaki
- Maruyasu Okazaki3-2Minebea Mitsumi
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maruyasu Okazaki 1447 · Minebea Mitsumi 1468
| Maruyasu Okazaki | Draw | Minebea Mitsumi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Maruyasu Okazaki: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Maruyasu Okazaki | Minebea Mitsumi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.9 | 1.9 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 1.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maruyasu Okazaki 4–2–0 Minebea Mitsumi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/25 Japan Football League | Maruyasu Okazaki | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Minebea Mitsumi |
| 21/06/25 Japan Football League | Minebea Mitsumi | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Maruyasu Okazaki |
| 14/09/24 Japan Football League | Maruyasu Okazaki | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Minebea Mitsumi |
| 02/06/24 Japan Football League | Minebea Mitsumi | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Maruyasu Okazaki |
| 29/10/23 Japan Football League | Minebea Mitsumi | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Maruyasu Okazaki |
| 02/07/23 Japan Football League | Maruyasu Okazaki | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Minebea Mitsumi |
Standings · Japan Football League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criacao Shinjuku | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Honda FC | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Verspah Oita | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Vonds Ichihara | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Azul Claro Numazu | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | Okinawa SV | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 17 |
| 7 | YSCC | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 17 |
| 8 | Reinmeer Aomori | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| 9 | Briobecca Urayasu SC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 10 | Veertien Mie | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 11 | Minebea Mitsumi | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 14 |
| 12 | J-Lease FC | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| 13 | Grulla Morioka FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| 14 | FC Tiamo Hirakata | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 9 |
| 15 | Yokogawa Musashino FC | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 17 | 8 |
| 16 | Maruyasu Okazaki | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Maruyasu Okazaki | Minebea Mitsumi |
|---|---|---|
| Veertien Mie | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Honda FC | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| YSCC | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Grulla Morioka FC | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Vonds Ichihara | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Criacao Shinjuku | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Minebea Mitsumi (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maruyasu Okazaki
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Veertien Mie Japan Football League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 01/11 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan Football League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Briobecca Urayasu SC Japan Football League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/10 | Honda FC Japan Football League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | YSCC Japan Football League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | Reinmeer Aomori Japan Football League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 27/09 | Grulla Morioka FC Japan Football League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/09 | Vonds Ichihara Japan Football League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Criacao Shinjuku Japan Football League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | FC Tiamo Hirakata Japan Football League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Minebea Mitsumi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Yokogawa Musashino FC Japan Football League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 31/10 | Vonds Ichihara Japan Football League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 24/10 | Criacao Shinjuku Japan Football League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | J-Lease FC Japan Football League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 11/10 | Verspah Oita Japan Football League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/10 | Honda FC Japan Football League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 26/09 | Veertien Mie Japan Football League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 19/09 | Grulla Morioka FC Japan Football League |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/09 | YSCC Japan Football League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Okinawa SV Japan Football League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maruyasu Okazaki vs Minebea Mitsumi?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Maruyasu Okazaki win (39%). Probabilities: Maruyasu Okazaki 39%, draw 27%, Minebea Mitsumi 34%.
How many goals are expected in Maruyasu Okazaki vs Minebea Mitsumi?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Maruyasu Okazaki 1.45 · Minebea Mitsumi 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Maruyasu Okazaki vs Minebea Mitsumi?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.