Football · Panama LPF · 12/10, 01:15

Prediction: UMECIT vs Alianza FC Panama

Team pages: UMECIT · Alianza FC Panama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

UMECIT1.11

Alianza FC Panama0.95

1X2

39% 31% 30%

UMECIT Draw Alianza FC Panama

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

UMECIT 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLDWWWLW

Alianza FC Panama 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWDDLDWL

Head-to-head

UMECIT 0–2–4 Alianza FC Panama (6 last)

Alianza FC Panama1-0UMECIT
Alianza FC Panama0-0UMECIT
UMECIT1-1Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama2-1UMECIT
UMECIT1-3Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama2-0UMECIT

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMECIT 1486 · Alianza FC Panama 1490

	UMECIT	Draw	Alianza FC Panama
Our model	38%	33%	29%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alianza FC Panama: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UMECIT	Alianza FC Panama
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.4	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0	5.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.57 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:27 +13’	2.25	3.00	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:56 +104’	2.57	2.85	2.85
07:08 +6’	2.54▼	2.88▲	2.85
21:10 +38’	2.57▲	2.81▼	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UMECIT 0–2–4 Alianza FC Panama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/08/26 CONCACAF Central American Cup	Alianza FC Panama	1-0 HT 1-0	UMECIT
26/07/26 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	0-0 HT 0-0	UMECIT
05/04/26 Panama LPF	UMECIT	1-1 HT 0-1	Alianza FC Panama
31/01/26 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	2-1 HT 1-1	UMECIT
09/11/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	1-3 HT 0-1	Alianza FC Panama
19/08/25 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	2-0 HT 1-0	UMECIT

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plaza Amador	11	7	3	1	26	16	24
2	CD Arabe Unido	11	6	4	1	16	8	22
3	UMECIT	11	4	4	3	10	9	16
4	Tauro FC	11	4	2	5	16	13	14
5	Alianza FC Panama	11	3	5	3	11	10	14
6	Sporting San Miguelito	11	3	4	4	12	13	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMECIT	Alianza FC Panama
San Francisco FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
CD Universitario	1-2 L	0-0 D
Union Cocle	1-0 W	2-2 D
Herrera FC	3-1 W	0-1 L
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-0 W	2-0 W
Veraguas CD	1-1 D	1-2 L
Plaza Amador	0-3 L	2-4 L
Sporting San Miguelito	0-1 L	0-0 D
CD Arabe Unido	0-0 D	1-0 W
Tauro FC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza FC Panama (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UMECIT

DDLLDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
27/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	1-2	8	7	L
22/09	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
13/09	Herrera FC Panama LPF	3-1	3-1	2	5	W
08/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
01/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
24/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
16/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
09/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
02/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	7	9	D

Alianza FC Panama

WDLWDDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	10	L
29/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
20/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
07/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
25/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
17/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-3	2-4	5	6	L
10/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
01/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMECIT vs Alianza FC Panama?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UMECIT win (39%). Probabilities: UMECIT 39%, draw 31%, Alianza FC Panama 30%.

How many goals are expected in UMECIT vs Alianza FC Panama?

The model expects 2.06 goals (UMECIT 1.11 · Alianza FC Panama 0.95), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in UMECIT vs Alianza FC Panama?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.