Football · Colombia Primera B · 06/08, 22:30

Prediction: Envigado FC vs Union Magdalena

Team pages: Envigado FC · Union Magdalena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Envigado FC1.25

Union Magdalena1.01

1X2

41% 31% 29%

Envigado FC Draw Union Magdalena

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Envigado FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDLWLD

Union Magdalena 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWDDLD

Head-to-head

Envigado FC 1–2–3 Union Magdalena (6 last)

Union Magdalena4-2Envigado FC
Union Magdalena3-1Envigado FC
Envigado FC2-1Union Magdalena
Envigado FC0-0Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena1-1Envigado FC
Envigado FC1-2Union Magdalena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Envigado FC 1532 · Union Magdalena 1526

	Envigado FC	Draw	Union Magdalena
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	41%	31%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Magdalena: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Envigado FC	Union Magdalena
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 3.7	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
22:04 +37’	2.25	3.00	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Envigado FC 1–2–3 Union Magdalena

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/26 Colombia Primera B	Union Magdalena	4-2 HT 2-1	Envigado FC
18/10/25 Colombia Primera A	Union Magdalena	3-1 HT 1-0	Envigado FC
26/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Envigado FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Union Magdalena
31/07/23 Colombia Primera A	Envigado FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Magdalena
06/02/23 Colombia Primera A	Union Magdalena	1-1 HT 0-0	Envigado FC
06/08/22 Colombia Primera A	Envigado FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Union Magdalena

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Cartagena	2	1	1	0	6	2	4
2	Patriotas FC	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
3	Independiente Yumbo	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
4	Envigado FC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	Itagui Leones	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
6	Boca Juniors De Cali	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
6	Bogota FC	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
6	Orsomarso	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
9	Barranquilla FC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
10	Deportes Quindio	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
10	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
12	Tigres FC	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
12	Union Magdalena	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
14	Atletico Cali FC	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
15	Internacional FC de Palmira	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
16	Real San Andres	2	0	1	1	3	7	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Envigado FC	Union Magdalena
Real Cartagena	1-1 D	3-0 W
Internacional FC de Palmira	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Envigado FC

DDWWWDLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
30/07	Once Caldas Colombia Cup	0-2	0-3	3	6	L
27/07	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
22/07	Once Caldas Colombia Cup	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
29/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
26/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
18/05	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
15/05	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
11/05	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
04/05	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Union Magdalena

LWDWLWDDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
25/07	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
21/05	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
18/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
12/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-0	3-0	6	6	W
09/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-2	1-2	4	8	L
04/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
28/04	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
18/04	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
13/04	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Envigado FC vs Union Magdalena?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Envigado FC win (41%). Probabilities: Envigado FC 41%, draw 31%, Union Magdalena 29%.

How many goals are expected in Envigado FC vs Union Magdalena?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Envigado FC 1.25 · Union Magdalena 1.01), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Envigado FC vs Union Magdalena?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.