Football · Colombia Primera B · 12/08, 00:45
Prediction: Real Cartagena vs Bogota FC
Team pages: Real Cartagena · Bogota FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.33Total
Real Cartagena1.64
Bogota FC0.69
1X2
Real Cartagena
Draw
Bogota FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Real Cartagena
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Bogota FC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Cartagena
6–0
Bogota FC
(6 last)
- Bogota FC1-2Real Cartagena
- Real Cartagena2-0Bogota FC
- Bogota FC0-1Real Cartagena
- Bogota FC0-3Real Cartagena
- Real Cartagena5-0Bogota FC
- Bogota FC0-1Real Cartagena
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Cartagena 1498 · Bogota FC 1467
| Real Cartagena | Draw | Bogota FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 26% | 14% |
| Market | 61% | 23% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Real Cartagena: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Cartagena | Bogota FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.6 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.5 | 1.7 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.4 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Cartagena 6–0–0 Bogota FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/26 Colombia Primera B | Bogota FC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Real Cartagena |
| 03/05/26 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Bogota FC |
| 09/02/26 Colombia Primera B | Bogota FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Real Cartagena |
| 21/07/25 Colombia Primera B | Bogota FC | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Real Cartagena |
| 09/02/25 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Bogota FC |
| 13/08/24 Colombia Primera B | Bogota FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Real Cartagena |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Yumbo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Itagui Leones | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Real Cartagena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 4 | Patriotas FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Envigado FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Orsomarso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Bogota FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Deportes Quindio | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 11 | Atletico Cali FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 12 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 13 | Real San Andres | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 14 | Barranquilla FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | Tigres FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Cartagena | Bogota FC |
|---|---|---|
| Barranquilla FC | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Union Magdalena | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Cartagena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 30/07 | America de Cali Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | America de Cali Colombia Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 26/05 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/05 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
Bogota FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 03/08 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 29/07 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Cup |
0-3 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 13/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Cartagena vs Bogota FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Cartagena win (60%). Probabilities: Real Cartagena 60%, draw 25%, Bogota FC 15%.
How many goals are expected in Real Cartagena vs Bogota FC?
The model expects 2.33 goals (Real Cartagena 1.64 · Bogota FC 0.69), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Cartagena vs Bogota FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.