Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 14/11, 20:00

Prediction: RWD Molenbeek vs RSC Habay

Team pages: RWD Molenbeek · RSC Habay

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

RWD Molenbeek1.56

RSC Habay0.89

1X2

53% 26% 21%

RWD Molenbeek Draw RSC Habay

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

RWD Molenbeek 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWLLDL

RSC Habay 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDLDWLWL

Head-to-head

RWD Molenbeek 1–0 RSC Habay (1 last)

RSC Habay1-2RWD Molenbeek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RWD Molenbeek 1507 · RSC Habay 1464

	RWD Molenbeek	Draw	RSC Habay
Our model	52%	28%	20%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RWD Molenbeek (rating 1507 vs 1464).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RWD Molenbeek	RSC Habay
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.70

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.75 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +38’	1.67	3.70	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +11’	1.75	3.60	4.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · RWD Molenbeek 1–0–0 RSC Habay

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/08/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	RSC Habay	1-2 HT 0-1	RWD Molenbeek

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	12	8	1	3	20	11	25
2	Union Rochefortoise	12	6	4	2	23	11	22
3	Union Saint Gilloise II	12	6	3	3	22	15	21
4	Tubize	12	6	3	3	18	13	21
5	RAEC Mons	12	6	2	4	28	20	20
6	RWD Molenbeek	12	6	2	4	16	14	20
7	ROC Charleroi	12	4	4	4	15	23	16
8	Standard Liege II	12	4	2	6	14	12	14
9	Sporting Charleroi U23	12	3	5	4	13	14	14
10	RCS Onhaye	12	4	1	7	13	22	13
11	RSC Habay	12	3	3	6	10	15	12
12	FC Flenu	12	0	2	10	11	33	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RWD Molenbeek	RSC Habay
RFC Meux	0-1 L	1-0 W
Standard Liege II	1-1 D	0-0 D
RAEC Mons	1-2 L	2-2 D
ROC Charleroi	1-3 L	0-1 L
Tubize	2-1 W	0-1 L
Union Saint Gilloise II	2-4 L	2-1 W
Sporting Charleroi U23	1-0 W	0-0 D
RCS Onhaye	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: RSC Habay (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RWD Molenbeek

WWWDLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/11	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
24/10	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
17/10	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
10/10	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-3	2-4	1	5	L
30/09	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
19/09	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	1	0	W
12/09	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
06/09	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	5	2	W

RSC Habay

LDWDLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
08/11	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
31/10	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
25/10	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
11/10	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
30/09	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
20/09	FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
13/09	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	11	2	D
05/09	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-2	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RWD Molenbeek vs RSC Habay?

According to our model, the most likely result is a RWD Molenbeek win (53%). Probabilities: RWD Molenbeek 53%, draw 26%, RSC Habay 21%.

How many goals are expected in RWD Molenbeek vs RSC Habay?

The model expects 2.45 goals (RWD Molenbeek 1.56 · RSC Habay 0.89), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in RWD Molenbeek vs RSC Habay?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.