Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 14/11, 20:00

Prediction: Union Rochefortoise vs Tubize

Team pages: Union Rochefortoise · Tubize

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Union Rochefortoise1.78

Tubize1.53

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Union Rochefortoise Draw Tubize

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Rochefortoise 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDDWWLWD

Tubize 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDWLLWWD

Head-to-head

Union Rochefortoise 1–1–4 Tubize (6 last)

Tubize1-4Union Rochefortoise
Tubize3-2Union Rochefortoise
Union Rochefortoise1-1Tubize
Union Rochefortoise1-5Tubize
Tubize1-0Union Rochefortoise
Union Rochefortoise0-1Tubize

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Rochefortoise 1535 · Tubize 1530

	Union Rochefortoise	Draw	Tubize
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	43%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tubize: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Rochefortoise	Tubize
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.2	3.2 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	4.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.56
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.44 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +22’	2.10	3.50	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +11’	1.94	3.56	3.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Rochefortoise 1–1–4 Tubize

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tubize	1-4 HT 0-1	Union Rochefortoise
10/05/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tubize	3-2 HT 1-1	Union Rochefortoise
07/03/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	1-1 HT 0-1	Tubize
22/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	1-5 HT 0-1	Tubize
10/09/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tubize	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Rochefortoise
05/04/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	0-1 HT 0-1	Tubize

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	12	8	1	3	20	11	25
2	Union Rochefortoise	12	6	4	2	23	11	22
3	Union Saint Gilloise II	12	6	3	3	22	15	21
4	Tubize	12	6	3	3	18	13	21
5	RAEC Mons	12	6	2	4	28	20	20
6	RWD Molenbeek	12	6	2	4	16	14	20
7	ROC Charleroi	12	4	4	4	15	23	16
8	Standard Liege II	12	4	2	6	14	12	14
9	Sporting Charleroi U23	12	3	5	4	13	14	14
10	RCS Onhaye	12	4	1	7	13	22	13
11	RSC Habay	12	3	3	6	10	15	12
12	FC Flenu	12	0	2	10	11	33	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Rochefortoise	Tubize
ROC Charleroi	4-0 W	1-1 D
RAEC Mons	0-2 L	2-2 D
RFC Meux	3-0 W	0-1 L
RWD Molenbeek	1-1 D	1-2 L
RCS Onhaye	1-2 L	2-1 W
RSC Habay	4-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Rochefortoise (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Rochefortoise

WWLDDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
24/10	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	3-0	4-0	2	1	W
21/10	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
10/10	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
03/10	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
30/09	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
19/09	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
12/09	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-1	9	5	W
29/08	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	4-2	4	5	W

Tubize

LDWDWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
31/10	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	11	4	W
25/10	FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-0	3	3	W
17/10	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
10/10	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
03/10	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
26/09	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
19/09	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	4	2	W
12/09	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
05/09	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-4	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Rochefortoise vs Tubize?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Rochefortoise win (43%). Probabilities: Union Rochefortoise 43%, draw 25%, Tubize 32%.

How many goals are expected in Union Rochefortoise vs Tubize?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Union Rochefortoise 1.78 · Tubize 1.53), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Rochefortoise vs Tubize?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.