Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: IJsselmeervogels vs GVVV Veenendaal

Team pages: IJsselmeervogels · GVVV Veenendaal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

IJsselmeervogels2.38

GVVV Veenendaal1.64

1X2

53% 21% 25%

IJsselmeervogels Draw GVVV Veenendaal

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

IJsselmeervogels 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLWLDW

GVVV Veenendaal 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

IJsselmeervogels 3–3 GVVV Veenendaal (6 last)

GVVV Veenendaal3-1IJsselmeervogels
IJsselmeervogels0-3GVVV Veenendaal
IJsselmeervogels3-0GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal2-1IJsselmeervogels
IJsselmeervogels3-0GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal0-3IJsselmeervogels

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IJsselmeervogels 1556 · GVVV Veenendaal 1427

	IJsselmeervogels	Draw	GVVV Veenendaal
Our model	54%	21%	26%
Market	53%	22%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IJsselmeervogels (rating 1556 vs 1427).
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IJsselmeervogels	GVVV Veenendaal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.5 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.10

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.83 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:14 +6’	1.70	4.10	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:40 +161’	1.68	3.98	3.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IJsselmeervogels 3–0–3 GVVV Veenendaal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	GVVV Veenendaal	3-1 HT 0-1	IJsselmeervogels
22/11/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	IJsselmeervogels	0-3 HT 0-1	GVVV Veenendaal
28/05/22 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	IJsselmeervogels	3-0	GVVV Veenendaal
22/02/22 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	GVVV Veenendaal	2-1 HT 2-1	IJsselmeervogels
22/02/20 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	IJsselmeervogels	3-0	GVVV Veenendaal
05/10/19 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	GVVV Veenendaal	0-3	IJsselmeervogels

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	HHC Hardenberg	4	3	1	0	10	5	10
3	De Treffers	4	2	2	0	11	4	8
4	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	4	2	1	1	15	9	7
5	Katwijk	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
6	IJsselmeervogels	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Kozakken Boys	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
8	RKAV Volendam	4	2	1	1	5	8	7
9	Spakenburg	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
10	Barendrecht	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
11	Amsterdamsche FC	4	2	0	2	6	8	6
12	HSV Hoek	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
13	Koninklijke HFC	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	4	1	1	2	7	11	4
15	Kloetinge	4	1	1	2	6	10	4
16	Almere City Reserves	4	1	0	3	8	7	3
17	GVVV Veenendaal	4	0	0	4	5	14	0
18	ROHDA Raalte	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IJsselmeervogels	GVVV Veenendaal
Quick Boys	0-1 L	0-3 L
Kozakken Boys	2-1 W	2-3 L
HHC Hardenberg	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: IJsselmeervogels (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IJsselmeervogels

WDLWDLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
29/08	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
15/08	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
23/05	ACV Assen Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-4	2	3	L
16/05	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	2-2	5	7	D
09/05	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
25/04	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-3	4	4	L
18/04	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
11/04	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	2	3	W

GVVV Veenendaal

LLWLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	7	0	L
29/08	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	2-3	4	4	L
22/08	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-5	6	2	L
23/05	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	4-5	5	1	L
16/05	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	11	0	D
09/05	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
25/04	IJsselmeervogels Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	3-1	7	4	W
18/04	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-3	0-6	2	3	L
11/04	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IJsselmeervogels vs GVVV Veenendaal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IJsselmeervogels win (53%). Probabilities: IJsselmeervogels 53%, draw 21%, GVVV Veenendaal 25%.

How many goals are expected in IJsselmeervogels vs GVVV Veenendaal?

The model expects 4.02 goals (IJsselmeervogels 2.38 · GVVV Veenendaal 1.64), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in IJsselmeervogels vs GVVV Veenendaal?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.