Football · Austria Regionalliga West · 31/07, 19:00

Prediction: FC Kitzbuhel vs FC Lustenau

Team pages: FC Kitzbuhel · FC Lustenau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

FC Kitzbuhel2.31

FC Lustenau1.32

1X2

59% 21% 20%

FC Kitzbuhel Draw FC Lustenau

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kitzbuhel 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDWWWW

FC Lustenau 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLDLWL

Head-to-head

FC Kitzbuhel 2–1–0 FC Lustenau (3 last)

FC Lustenau1-4FC Kitzbuhel
FC Kitzbuhel1-0FC Lustenau
FC Lustenau1-1FC Kitzbuhel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kitzbuhel 1560 · FC Lustenau 1436

	FC Kitzbuhel	Draw	FC Lustenau
Our model	59%	21%	20%
Market	59%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Kitzbuhel (rating 1560 vs 1436).
H2H favours FC Kitzbuhel: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kitzbuhel	FC Lustenau
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.6	1.5 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.6 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.8	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.53▼	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.63
2	3.75 → 4.50▲	Pinn 5.15 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:07 +6’	1.67	4.00	3.75
23:13 +3’	1.53▼	4.20▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:05	1.39	4.63	5.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kitzbuhel 2–1–0 FC Lustenau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Austria Cup	FC Lustenau	1-4 HT 0-3	FC Kitzbuhel
11/04/26 Austria Regionalliga West	FC Kitzbuhel	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Lustenau
13/09/25 Austria Regionalliga West	FC Lustenau	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Kitzbuhel

Standings · Austria Regionalliga West

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Dornbirn 1913	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Kitzbuhel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Kufstein	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Lauterach	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Lustenau	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Wolfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Imst	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Rothis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Schwaz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SCR Altach II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SK St Johann	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fugen/Uderns	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SV Lochau	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SVG Reichenau	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hohenems	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	WSG Swarovski Wattens II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kitzbuhel	FC Lustenau
TSV St. Johann	0-0 D	3-1 W
FC Kufstein	1-3 L	1-4 L
Hohenems	2-1 W	2-2 D
SV Kuchl	1-3 L	1-3 L
SC Schwaz	2-0 W	2-2 D
SC Imst	0-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Kitzbuhel (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Kitzbuhel

LWLWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	FC Lustenau Austria Cup	3-0	4-1	3	5	W
10/07	SK Ebbs Europe Friendlies	3-1	5-3	5	0	W
13/06	Seekirchen Austria Regionalliga West	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
07/06	SCR Altach II Austria Regionalliga West	0-0	5-2	5	2	W
04/06	TSV St. Johann Austria Regionalliga West	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
29/05	FC Kufstein Austria Regionalliga West	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
22/05	Hohenems Austria Regionalliga West	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
14/05	SV Kuchl Austria Regionalliga West	1-0	1-3	6	3	L
09/05	SC Schwaz Austria Regionalliga West	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/05	SC Imst Austria Regionalliga West	0-2	0-2	–	–	L

FC Lustenau

LWLLDLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	FC Kitzbuhel Austria Cup	0-3	1-4	3	5	L
13/06	TSV St. Johann Austria Regionalliga West	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
06/06	FC Kufstein Austria Regionalliga West	0-3	1-4	–	–	L
04/06	Hohenems Austria Regionalliga West	0-1	2-2	2	7	D
30/05	SV Kuchl Austria Regionalliga West	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
23/05	SC Schwaz Austria Regionalliga West	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
16/05	SC Imst Austria Regionalliga West	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
09/05	SK Bischofshofen Austria Regionalliga West	0-3	1-4	8	5	L
02/05	FC Lauterach Austria Regionalliga West	2-0	3-2	6	5	W
19/04	FC Wacker Innsbruck Austria Regionalliga West	0-1	0-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kitzbuhel vs FC Lustenau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Kitzbuhel win (59%). Probabilities: FC Kitzbuhel 59%, draw 21%, FC Lustenau 20%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kitzbuhel vs FC Lustenau?

The model expects 3.62 goals (FC Kitzbuhel 2.31 · FC Lustenau 1.32), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kitzbuhel vs FC Lustenau?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.