Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 23/10, 10:00

Prediction: FC Chernigiv vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Team pages: FC Chernigiv · Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

FC Chernigiv1.19

Ahrobiznes Volochysk1.24

1X2

34% 30% 36%

FC Chernigiv Draw Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Chernigiv 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDDLWLLLWL

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWDWWW

Head-to-head

FC Chernigiv 0–2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk (2 last)

Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-0FC Chernigiv
FC Chernigiv0-2Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Chernigiv 1485 · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1578

	FC Chernigiv	Draw	Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Our model	34%	30%	36%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk (rating 1485 vs 1578).
H2H favours Ahrobiznes Volochysk: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Chernigiv	Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.5	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.63▼	Pinn 2.78 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.25 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:59 +7’	2.90	3.10	2.25
21:12 +17’	2.63▼	3.10	2.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:28 +36’	2.70	2.83	2.50
04:56 +6’	2.78▲	2.83	2.44▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Chernigiv 0–0–2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/26 Ukraine Persha Liga	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Chernigiv
08/11/25 Ukraine Persha Liga	FC Chernigiv	0-2 HT 0-0	Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoriya Sumy	12	7	3	2	16	9	24
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	7	2	3	19	14	23
3	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	12	6	3	3	25	14	21
4	SC Poltava	12	6	3	3	22	10	21
5	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	12	6	3	3	18	13	21
6	PFC Oleksandria	12	5	5	2	17	11	20
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	4	5	3	15	13	17
8	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	12	4	3	5	12	14	15
9	FC Metalist Kharkiv	12	4	3	5	13	14	15
10	Nyva Ternopil	12	3	6	3	12	10	15
11	Ingulets Petrovo	11	4	2	5	11	16	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	4	1	7	12	20	13
13	UCSA	12	2	5	5	15	19	11
14	FC Chernigiv	11	2	4	5	12	16	10
15	FC Probiy Horodenka	12	2	3	7	12	30	9
16	Polissya Zhytomyr II	12	1	5	6	17	25	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Chernigiv	Ahrobiznes Volochysk
FC Metalist Kharkiv	0-2 L	1-0 W
UCSA	2-3 L	3-2 W
Nyva Ternopil	1-0 W	0-0 D
PFC Oleksandria	0-1 L	1-0 W
Polissya Zhytomyr II	2-2 D	2-3 L
FC Probiy Horodenka	1-1 D	6-0 W
FK Kulykiv-Bilka	1-1 D	1-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ahrobiznes Volochysk (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Chernigiv

DDDLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
11/10	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
02/10	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	2-3	5	6	L
27/09	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
11/09	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
05/09	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
09/08	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

WDLWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
10/10	Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	2-1	3-2	9	3	W
27/09	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
20/09	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
14/09	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
05/09	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	2-0	6-0	1	0	W
30/08	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	1-5	–	–	L
14/08	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
08/08	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Chernigiv vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ahrobiznes Volochysk win (36%). Probabilities: FC Chernigiv 34%, draw 30%, Ahrobiznes Volochysk 36%.

How many goals are expected in FC Chernigiv vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk?

The model expects 2.42 goals (FC Chernigiv 1.19 · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.24), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Chernigiv vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.