Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 16/11, 11:30

Prediction: FC Chernigiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv

Team pages: FC Chernigiv · Lokomotiv Kyiv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

FC Chernigiv1.36

Lokomotiv Kyiv1.46

1X2

34% 27% 39%

FC Chernigiv Draw Lokomotiv Kyiv

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Chernigiv 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDDLWLLLWL

Lokomotiv Kyiv 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWDLWL

Head-to-head

FC Chernigiv 1–1–0 Lokomotiv Kyiv (2 last)

Lokomotiv Kyiv1-1FC Chernigiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv0-3FC Chernigiv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Chernigiv 1486 · Lokomotiv Kyiv 1520

	FC Chernigiv	Draw	Lokomotiv Kyiv
Our model	34%	28%	39%
Market	34%	27%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Chernigiv	Lokomotiv Kyiv
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.5	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.30

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:10 +14’	2.63	3.30	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Chernigiv 1–1–0 Lokomotiv Kyiv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Ukraine Persha Liga	Lokomotiv Kyiv	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Chernigiv
11/04/25 Ukraine Druha Liga	Lokomotiv Kyiv	0-3 HT 0-0	FC Chernigiv

Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	16	9	4	3	25	15	31
2	FC Viktoriya Sumy	16	9	4	3	21	12	31
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	15	9	2	4	26	17	29
4	PFC Oleksandria	16	7	7	2	20	11	28
5	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	15	7	4	4	29	18	25
6	SC Poltava	16	7	3	6	26	18	24
7	Nyva Ternopil	16	5	8	3	21	15	23
8	FC Metalist Kharkiv	15	6	3	6	21	18	21
9	Lokomotiv Kyiv	15	5	5	5	21	21	20
10	Ingulets Petrovo	14	5	3	6	15	19	18
11	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	16	4	6	6	15	20	18
12	UCSA	15	3	6	6	19	24	15
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	15	4	2	9	13	27	14
14	FC Probiy Horodenka	15	2	5	8	15	35	11
15	FC Chernigiv	12	2	4	6	13	19	10
16	Polissya Zhytomyr II	15	1	6	8	20	31	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Chernigiv	Lokomotiv Kyiv
SC Poltava	2-3 L	2-1 W
FC Metalist Kharkiv	0-2 L	2-4 L
UCSA	2-3 L	2-3 L
Nyva Ternopil	1-0 W	0-0 D
PFC Oleksandria	0-1 L	3-1 W
Polissya Zhytomyr II	2-2 D	3-3 D
FC Probiy Horodenka	1-1 D	2-0 W
FK Kulykiv-Bilka	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Kyiv (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Chernigiv

DDDLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
11/10	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
02/10	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	2-3	5	6	L
27/09	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
11/09	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
05/09	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
09/08	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D

Lokomotiv Kyiv

LWWWDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-3	2-4	2	5	L
31/10	Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	2-1	9	9	W
25/10	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	2-2	2-3	6	6	L
18/10	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/10	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	3-1	4	2	W
03/10	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	2-1	3-3	3	2	D
26/09	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
20/09	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	2-1	6	7	W
04/09	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Chernigiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lokomotiv Kyiv win (39%). Probabilities: FC Chernigiv 34%, draw 27%, Lokomotiv Kyiv 39%.

How many goals are expected in FC Chernigiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv?

The model expects 2.82 goals (FC Chernigiv 1.36 · Lokomotiv Kyiv 1.46), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Chernigiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.